1 year of Javier Milei
The rebirth of libertarian economics
December 15, 2024
Javier Milei pursued his promised policies and achieved more than expected by most
His "shock therapy" ended hyperinflation and stabilised the economy
He maintained approval rating, but needs more seats in the parliament
Javier Milei is a professor of macroeconomics and a political commentator who was elected President of Argentina in November 2023.
He is a libertarian (prioritising political and economic freedom) and a minarchist (advocating for the lowest possible government involvement in the society).
After entering politics in 2021, Milei gained popularity for his aggressive criticism of the government for its high spending, socialist economic policies and corruption.
In the past 30 years, Argentinian economy grew slower than its neighbours, had a series of crises and relied heavily on borrowing, with total foreign debt more than doubling between 2005 and 2019.
By the end of 2023, the crisis was at its peak:
Hyperinflation: 211% consumer prices increase in the past year. Shops change prices weekly or monthly.
Falling living standards: over 40% of the population was in poverty, up from 25.7% in 2017. Argentina is the first country in modern economics to fall from high-income to middle-income bracket.
No reserves: the Central Bank had depleted all of its reserves and was $11 billion in debt. Foreign currency reserves were also decreasing.
Foreign debt: $42.9 billion in obligations to the International Monetary Fund, over $280 billion total external debt.
Fractured ruling party: Left-wing majority and conservative minority were in conflict inside the political elites.
Javier Milei promised extreme and quick reforms, cutting government spending, reducing bureaucracy by eliminating entire ministries, removing market controls, attracting investors and removing long-ruling elites from power.
He gained particular support from middle-class voters and young males, but also across different social and geographic groups.
Javier Milei was successful with implementing his policies in the first year, despite his party not having a parliamentary majority.
Cut spending
Promise: to reduce government spending by cutting social programs, welfare benefits and state workers’ salaries, especially when ineffective.
Reason: growing spending was financed by printing money or increasing debt, which lead to growing price of servicing this debt and low investor confidence.
The population’s dependency on state benefits and large number of government workers potentially reduced productivity.
Result: budget deficit of $2 billion in 2023 has turned into a budget surplus of $265 million by April 2024, the first fiscal surplus in 16 years.
Milei announced he would remove social assistance plans step-by-step and cut retirement and pension funds.
This includes the removal of energy subsidies for low income Argentines. Argentina's energy subsidies have been historically high, equalling 1.6% GDP in 2023, or a $12 billion bill for the government, that has been reduced by $2.7 billion as of September 2024.
Stop hyperinflation
Promise: to remove any restrictions on prices in the economy, and allow the reduced spending, increased reserves and investor confidence to stabilise inflation.
Reason: previous governments often restricted the prices of goods. This allowed to keep inflation lower and the products accessible at a lower price, but led to these goods selling out and being often unavailable in the shops.
Milei argued that the biggest driver of inflation was economic mismanagement, including overspending, overborrowing and unhealthy role of government in the economy.
Result: despite an initial jump in prices as market restrictions were removed, the prices quickly stabilised and have now reached 2% of monthly inflation, on track to completely normalise annual inflation next year.
Removing price controls over rent increased the availability of free housing and allowed landlords to increase prices in line with inflation, but left some without their previously subsidised housing.
Deregulation
Promise: to remove any legal and political restrictions to business and economic activity, promoting free-market economics inspired by anarcho-capitalism.
Reason: Milei’s main principle is to push for minimal involvement of the state with any social matters, as he believes that to be the biggest driver of economic growth.
Result: Milei has closed 10 out of 18 government’s ministries and opened the new Ministry for Deregulation, tasked with removing and simplifying legal barriers.
331 legal regulations to doing business and economic activity were eliminated and 341 regulations were modified toward deregulation.
Remove exchange rate controls
Promise: to move toward a completely free-flowing exchange rate of Argentinian peso to US dollar, determined by the market, by 2025.
Reason: for many years Argentinian governments have kept the peso’s exchange rate to dollar relatively high by spending currency reserves.
This allowed to keep the prices of imported goods lower, but resulted in the these products often not being available.
Result: Milei did not immediately remove all restrictions of the exchange rate, instead beginning with decreasing the official rate by half.
This meant that the official exchange rate became close to the “real” free black-market exchange rate, making imports more expensive and contributing to the initial bump in inflation.
Milei’s government is likely to remove remaining exchange rate controls in 2025.
Social cost
Negative consequences of the radical reforms introduced by Javier Milei focus on the immediate fall in living standards for some Argentinians.
Poverty rate has increased to 52.9% of the population in 2024, up from 41.7% in 2023.
Higher prices and cheaper peso
After price controls were removed, many products became more expensive. As peso became cheaper relative to dollar and other foreign currencies, imported goods also became more expensive
Therefore, many people found themselves spending more on their regular shopping
Cut spending, benefits and state salaries
Around 30,000 state employees have been fired under Milei’s plans
Some Argentinian citizens stopped receiving social payments and welfare benefits, or received less of them, reducing their available income
Others were affected by cuts in energy subsidies welfare payments or government projects
The living standards have already deteriorated significantly during the monetary crisis of 2018-2024.
Some welfare programs were expanded by the new government, like the Universal Child Allowance or the Food Cart Program.
Milei argues that the initial increases in poverty and inflation are not a result of his policy, but instead were more accurately reflected in the statistics after price controls were removed.
However, tens of thousands of Argentinians have disproportionately received the hardships of Javier Milei’s largely praised reforms.
Environmental policy
Milei abolished the environmental ministry early in office.
Funding for environmental policy has reduced by 65%. The work is currently split between the foreign ministry, the economy ministry and the chief of cabinet.
Milei, shortly after taking office proposed a bill which would relax regulations or reduce areas currently under protection. Including easing restrictions on economic activity in glacial areas and forests.
The government sees deregulation in forestry, tourism, infrastructure, mining, energy, oil and gas as ways to promote economic growth.
There have been growing concerns that Milei will announce Argentina’s departure from the Paris climate accord. He has previously called climate change a “socialist lie”.
Any formal removal from the accords may follow the coming second term of Donald Trump in the US who is expected to once again remove the country from the agreement.
Negotiators from Milei’s government were ordered to leave the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan after three days.
Argentina’s economy remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels in its energy consumption. Approximately 88% of energy is sourced from fossil fuels.
Foreign policy
Milei promised to closely align Argentina with the US, Israel and the “free world”.
He also warned that he would cut ties with Brazil and China, Argentina’s two main trading partners.
Milei announced a foreign policy doctrine that would align with the US and one that would not contradict ‘Western values’.
The government rejected the country's expected entry to the expanding BRIC agreement. This decision was expected under the previous administration.
In his first six months as President, Milei made 12 foreign visits to 10 countries. Visiting the US five times and Latin American countries only twice.
Milei does not adopt the expected role as a head of state when engaging in foreign diplomacy, leaning on Foreign Minister Diana Mondino to assume this role.
There has been a strong shift on Argentina’s policy towards Israel. The country's embassy is expected to be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Argentina abstained from a vote on a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. It has also voted against a resolution to admit Palestine as a full member of the UN, going against Argentina’s historic position.
Milei’s government joined the Ukraine Defence Contact Group established by the US in 2022 to ensure military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
There has been repeated criticisms that Argentina is removing itself from engagement across international issues, including social issues related to gender, human rights, climate change, social justice and health.
Milei’s stance on China has shifted. Whilst criticising China throughout early campaigns and refusing diplomatic ties, Milei has conceded the pragmatic need to engage with international partners.
Future
The economy is predicted to grow by 3.5% in 2025 after two years of recession, as a recovery driven by private sector business and investment begins.
Household spending is expected to increase as inflation continues to slow.
Energy investments could rise to up to $15 billion in 2025 and $16.5 billion in 2026 in response to deregulation that will push exports up.
Laws have been difficult to pass due to the minority of seats that are held by Milei’s party in Congress.
Some bills did pass in changed form, giving Milei extra powers across energy, pensions, security and other sectors.
Milei, for the first time since 1983, failed to pass a single law through parliament during his first six months in power. He relied on presidential orders to cut spending and introduce economic reforms.
A remaining challenge is the country's capital controls, which currently limit the purchase of foreign currency to $200 a month. Milei has said he will remove these restrictions, but has not given a date for any structural change.
Author Billy Barham
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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