GEOPOLITICS OF FOOD
Food security or trade weaponisation?
March 30, 2025
Global food production grew by 3.5 times from 1960 to 2020 from technological progress, greater efficiency and more farmland.
In this time, global population rose by 161%, but the increase in food production was even greater. Average individual food supply globally increased from 2000 to 2800 kilocalories per person per day.
Deaths from large famines fell from 990 per 100,000 in 1960 to below 13 in 2020.
International institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and global exporters facilitated food trade expansion.
Food exports more than tripled between 2000 and 2021, reaching $1.7 trillion.
COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global food trade.
Supply chain disruptions: logistics of the food trade were affected by pandemic restrictions and other factors.
Workforce shortage: many industries struggled to find staff due to uncertainty, risks and restrictions. Food services, processing and manufacturing were particularly affected.
This worsened food access, especially in Yemen, South Sudan and Afghanistan, where civil wars have already disrupted domestic food production, pushing millions into poverty.
International aid was slowed by limited funding and increased global demand for food.
The pandemic showed the importance of the food trade to geopolitics, having largely been ignored by the media prior.
Food trade disruption: the pandemic created port congestions and delays, causing various food deficits globally.
Export bans: In 2019, few countries had food export restrictions. However, in 2020,80 countries had food export bans, affecting 8% of globally traded food calories.
Food security: An additional 135 million people faced hunger in 2020, as more countries faced food insecurity — inability to ensure a sufficient supply of food for the population. India’s rice and Russia’s wheat export bans, like others, reflected governments’ desire to preserve domestic food security.
Volatile prices: Supply shortages led to rising food prices, particularly for cereals like wheat.
War in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted the global food trade:
Ukraine is a major exporter of cereals, especially corn and wheat
The Black Sea was used for exporting both Ukrainian and Russian foods
Russia, also a major food producer, cut its exports
Fighting in eastern Ukraine damaged crops, infrastructure, and led to fertiliser shortages (the region is a major supplier of ammonia, urea and potash).
The fertiliser crisis led to China restricting exports, affecting developing nations in Africa and Latin America.
Food prices increased dramatically, worsening global inflation and food insecurity.
Global inflation rose to 7.9% in 2022, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by higher costs in food and fuel.
Rising food and energy costs slowed economic growth, especially in emerging markets where food costs represent a higher part of the inflation basket.
Overall, global real GDP growth was 3.2% in 2022, down from 6.4% in 2021.
Food weaponisation: Russia cut its own exports of grain, blocked Ukrainian ports and targeted food trade infrastructure to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports. Ukrainian wheat exports fell by 15% in 2022 and 34% in 2023.
16 countries had food export restrictions in 2022 due to the Ukraine war. This affected 17% of globally traded calories, compared to 8% in 2020 during the pandemic.
Global Response:
Black Sea Grain deal: an agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022 which allowed Ukraine to export its foodstuffs again through its Black Sea ports, helping reduce prices and shortages globally. Russia exited the deal in 2023.
Routes of solidarity: alternative routes set up by the EU to export Ukrainian corn, wheat, sunflower oil and other products by land. This has contributed to the prices on food falling from their peak in May 2022, but later resulted in protests against excessive imports of Ukrainian grain in countries like Poland.
The impacts of the war highlighted the vulnerabilities of the global food system to international conflict.
Exporters of food
Major food exporters use the food trade’s global importance to exert influence and support or disrupt global food security, depending on the situation.
Largest food exporters by global share are the US (7.2%), Germany (6.8%), France (6%), Netherlands (5.7%), Italy (5.2%) and Brazil (5.1%).
EU countries play a major role in food production, but much of their food exports stay within the EU, partially diminishing their geopolitical influence.
Some major exporters, like the US, are also major importers. This is because while they produce and sell a lot of foodstuffs, they also import a lot of foreign foodstuffs.
Food exporters use the food trade to strengthen ties with regions facing food insecurity, such as parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
For example, Brazil and Russia recently increased their trade in grain with North Africa, while China exerts this influence in Africa and Asia.
Importers and dependency
The largest food importers by share include the US (10%), China (9%), Japan (6%), Germany (5%) and the UK (4%).
These countries dominate food imports due to large populations, relative wealth, and high consumption rates.
However, it is poorer countries which are more reliant on food imports that face greater instability from disruptions to the global food supply.
Countries highly reliant on food imports as a percentage of total merchandise imports include Yemen (39%), Sierra Leone (32%), Benin (32%), Afghanistan (27%), and Angola (14%).
Island nations in the Caribbean and Pacific also feature prominently, given their limited domestic production capabilities.
Countries depending on food imports face economic vulnerability and food security risks from market volatility and geopolitical disruptions. Long-term sustainability relies on strengthening domestic agriculture and improving resilience to climate change.
Some food-importing nations sought alternative alliances to secure supplies.
Russia-Africa relations initially become strained as many African countries relied on Ukrainian grain, but Russia now increased its own supplies to the region, including to Algeria, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Mali and Zimbabwe.
India lifted its rice export restrictions, and some African nations increased imports from India, the EU, and the US, to counter lost Ukrainian grain. Countries like Senegal, Kenya, Ghana and Tunisia moved closer to the West and condemned Russian invasion.
China expanded its influence in Africa through food aid and agricultural contracts, intensifying geopolitical competition with the West and Russia.
Climate
Climate change is also disrupting the global food trade, especially through extreme weather events.
These disruptions particularly affect low-income nations, as they tend to rely more on food imports and have worse access to credit and other measures of preventing crises.
Climate change also threatens to increase food insecurity, at a time when the pandemic and Ukraine war have already disrupted global supply chains in food and other industries.
More extreme weather: Extreme weather events are becoming more common (see chart above). Extreme weather events reached 40 in 2022, up from three in 2021 and the second highest figure on record.
Food insecurity: Droughts and crop failures worsen poverty and unrest, destabilising regions. In 2022, this happened in Sri Lanka, Peru and Kenya, amid dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living (in part determined by food prices).
In 2022, extreme heat during key growing months in Europe reduced crop yields and contributed to a rise in food inflation. Summer temperatures boosted food inflation by between 0.4-0.9 percentage points.
Future thoughts
Before 2020, the global food trade system efficiently connected surplus and deficit regions, ensuring stable supply and prices.
However, environmental challenges, the pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict revealed vulnerabilities.
Challenges ahead: Geopolitical tensions and climate change threaten food security and supply chains, with extreme weather and shifting trade dynamics disrupting vulnerable regions.
Reasons to hope:
Technology: Innovations like precision agriculture, climate-resilient crops and alternative proteins may boost efficiency and sustainability.
Resilience: Food production has thrived despite past global crises, showing potential for future resilience.
Long-term outlook: A shrinking global population may eventually ease pressures from higher calorie intake in developing economies.
Author Mike Richards
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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