MIGRATION TO EUROPE
April 27, 2025
In both 2015 and 2016, over a million refugees arrived in Europe
This had long-lasting economic and political consequences for the EU
Since 2022, a new wave of refugee arrivals is driven by global conflict
European migrant crisis
Causes: increasing intensity of the Civil War in Syria pushed millions to flee the country. Other refugees were escaping conflict in Afghanistan, Iraq and North Africa.
Thousands of migrants died as they tried to cross the seas into Spain, Italy, Greece and other countries.
Over a million of migrant arrivals in 2015 overwhelmed the asylum systems and drew a controversial public reaction.
The crisis created tensions between EU members, as many countries closed borders to arrivals. Germany eventually accepted 440,000 refugees.
Trying to reduce immigration, the EU:
Made agreements with Turkey, Tunisia and other countries to increase efforts in stopping migrant crossings.
Boosted border security: improved surveillance and fencing, more security personnel.
Adjusted laws: a new set of rules on asylum and migration will take effect in 2026, aiming to share the cost more evenly among members.
The refugee crisis has affected European countries differently. While some countries are entry points, others are final destinations.
Where migrants arrive: countries in Southern and Eastern Europe (like Italy, Greece, Poland) are entry points but often serve as transit hubs.
Where migrants go: Wealthier Western and Northern European countries (e.g. Germany and Sweden) see the highest proportion of arrivals.
2015: Over 1.2 million first-time asylum applications were made in the European Union.
Many refugees were from Syria, where a civil war was ongoing since 2011, intensifying around 2014.
By contrast, in 2011 approximately 300,000 asylum applications were made in the EU.
Countries with a welcoming policy on refugees (like Germany and Sweden) naturally attracted more of the arrivals.
Meanwhile, other countries like Denmark and Poland were hesitant and often actively opposed to accepting large numbers of non-European migrants.
The main reasons for opposing immigration were:
Integration: Concerns that migrants would not assimilate into local communities and came from different (especially Islamic) cultures.
Welfare and jobs: Hosting refugees has a cost in money and social benefits, and creates competition for jobs, especially in the short-term.
Crime: Concerns about a potential rise in violence, crime or terrorist activity.
As the number of arrivals peaked in 2015, countries that initially accepted refugees began calling for a redistribution.
There is unrestricted border-free travel within the European Union, known as the Schengen Area.
This makes it:
Easy to travel and transport goods between member-countries
Almost impossible to control migration within Schengen Area
This could be used by criminals to move between countries undetected. This also allows refugees to move freely within the EU once they have crossed the border.
As a result, some countries have introduced temporary limits on arrivals and re-introduced checks on border crossings within the EU.
This has turned into a more permanent solution, as many countries continue to renew these extra controls.
While the refugee migration has been a hot topic in European political discourse, the vast majority of the world’s refugees live outside of Europe.
How Migration Is Reshaping European Politics
A number of political parties in Europe take an active anti-immigration stance.
Their arguments include:
Competition for jobs
Increased crime
Strain on benefits system
Threat to national identity
On jobs, data suggests that an inflow of immigrant labour does have a short-term negative effect on employment among locals.
However, this effect disappears after a 10-year period.
Also, the employment of high-skilled locals benefited from an increase in migration after 10 years, while low-skilled natives lagged.
On crime, there is very limited evidence of a short-term increase in crime rate. The contentious nature of the topic means that there are relatively few studies available on it.
On welfare, data suggest that there is a high initial cost associated with hosting refugees.
However, the refugees tend to receive benefits proportionately to the native population, and successful integration can lead to a full repayment in 9-19 years.
A perceived inability by mainstream, centrist parties to respond to immigration also led to the growth of the anti-immigration parties.
As a result, several populist parties (especially on the right) capitalised on this by making opposition to immigration a central part of the political platforms.
British citizens who voted to leave the European Union in 2016 cited immigration concerns as one of the major reasons for their decision.
In response to the growth of anti-immigration parties, centre-right and centre-left parties across the continent increasingly adopted positions to limit migration in an effort to win over voters.
Migration flows have been instrumentalised for political purposes:
Belarus: Supported and promoted the entry of Middle Easterners to the EU in response to sanctions on Belarus and Russia.
Turkey: Threatened to allow the free passage of Syrians into the EU if it does not provide Turkey with support.
Rwanda and Tunisia: Offered to host asylum seekers in exchange for financial support and political favours.
Migration has deep economic consequences: both for host countries struggling with labor shortages and for home countries losing skilled workers.
Europe’s aging workforce, a result of declining birth rates and growing life expectancy, has created a shortage of skilled workers in the EU.
Several sectors, such as healthcare and agriculture, are heavily dependent on migrant labour.
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Migration can help reduce pressure on Europe’s welfare systems by ensuring that there are enough workers in the labour force in the long-term.
However, some migrants (especially refugees) are more likely to receive benefits, creating an additional strain on government finances, especially in the short-term.
Additionally, migration to Europe from the Global South produces brain drain in those countries.
Brain drain: a situation where the most educated and productive citizens of a country move abroad for better job opportunities and living standards.
The integration of migrants is one of the most intensely debated aspects of migration.
Governments and politicians call for migrants to integrate into the local society. In particular, through learning the language of the country and entering the job market.
However, long asylum processing times and migrants’ preference to live with their diaspora communities have made this harder.
Diaspora: an ethnic community living outside of its country or place of origin.
European citizens generally support integration, but they are also more likely to move out of neighbourhoods with significant migrant populations.
As they leave these neighbourhoods, the areas increasingly suffer from less integration and fewer economic opportunities.
On the other hand, immigrant communities also provide newer arrivals with support networks that help them navigate their new societies.
The discussion of immigration is shaped by political campaigns and media sensationalism. This can create misguided public opinions, as 68% of Europeans overestimate the share of immigrants in the population.
The conflict in Ukraine resulted in over five million people fleeing their countries, mainly to the EU and to a lesser extent to Russia.
Unlike earlier migrant groups, Ukrainians received preferential treatment and fast-tracked protection, like visa-free entry and work rights.
Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis face a years-long asylum process.
Eastern European countries (like Poland, Czechia or the Baltic states) welcomed Ukrainians but resisted earlier waves of refugees.
While much attention is on refugees from outside the EU, migration also happens within Europe itself. It is often driven by economic opportunities rather than conflict.
This is made possible by the EU’s freedom of movement, allowing European citizens to move to each other’s countries to work, study or retire without a visa.
Migration tends to be East-to-West and South-to-North, similar to the movements of refugees within the EU.
Workers from countries like Bulgaria, Poland or Romania have migrated to countries such as France, Germany or the UK (before Brexit). Often, these migrants work in manual jobs, like construction.
Meanwhile, Southern European countries have been negatively affected by the 2008 financial crises, which led many of their young people to look for work abroad.
The Future of Migration: What’s Driving the Next Wave?
Ongoing instability in the Middle East and Africa, and worsening effects of climate change are likely to produce additional migration waves in the future.
Climate change is resulting in extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and harming food production while creating competition for resources like water.
It is also expected to hit poorer countries — especially in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia — the hardest. This will likely result in displacement and greater immigration to wealthier parts of the world, including Europe.
As Europe debates migration policies, the pressure to act isn’t going away.
Author Naman Habtom
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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