TAIWAN INVASION
Everything you need to know
October 9, 2024
For the busiest:
Following the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, China shifted its military strategy and modernisation efforts to counter the US in the Indo-Pacific.
China’s population aged 15 to 64 years is estimated to have reached its peak at around 1 billion in 2015 and is now declining.
The invasion of Taiwan is the most extreme scenario of a conflict over the island.
The CSIS wargaming project uses latest open-source data and human players to simulate an invasion in 2026.
The US needs to use its airbases in Japan to successfully defend Taiwan.
Sufficient supply of anti-ship missiles is required.
In 2024, the US tested QUICKSINK – a secret anti-ship missile that is designed to be cheaply mass produced.
By 2027, China is expected to catch up to the US on the total number of naval missile launchers.
China and Taiwan split after the Chinese Civil War of 1949 resulted in the victory of the Communist Party.
Taiwan was formed by the government of the Nationalist Party, expelled from the mainland.
The US continued to support Taiwan, straining its relationship with China.
In 1954-5 and 1958, Taiwan and China fought over small islands near the Chinese shore owned by Taiwan.
In 1979, the US formally recognised China and Taiwan’s seat in the United Nations passed to China.
In 1995-96, the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis happened, after a pro-independence president of Taiwan travelled to the US.
China responded by launching ballistic missile tests over Taiwan and conducting military exercises near the island.
The United States intervened by moving two aircraft carrier battle groups into the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China.
Taiwan’s president won a reelection, and the crisis cooled down.
Following the 1996 crisis, as well as US military’s strong display in the Gulf War with Iraq in 1990-91, China shifted its military strategy and modernisation efforts to counter the US with:
Accelerated development of long-range ballistic missiles
Improved anti-ship and air defence capabilities
Cuts in personnel numbers and improved training
Purchasing latest Russian equipment for its Navy and Air Force
Rapidly developing locally engineered and produced replacements
Modernisation effort across all branches
“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification [with Taiwan] … but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all means necessary…”
- China’s President Xi Jinping
US military analysts suggest that 2027-30 presents a window of opportunity for China to forcefully annex or invade Taiwan.
1. Xi Jinping’s autocracy – serving an unprecedented third consecutive term as President, Xi has centralised power in China. He pursues a vision of China as the leading global military power by 2049.
2. Modern military – China’s army is preparing to finish a round of modernisation by 2027. Some experts suggest it is focused on Taiwan war capabilities.
3. Demographics – by the 2030s, China is set to begin experiencing a shrinking working population, as well as potential social pressures arising from demographic factors.
China’s population aged 15 to 64 years is estimated to have reached its peak at around 1 billion in 2015 and is now declining.
By 2040, 28% of China’s population would be older than 60.
Xi Jinping will reach the age of average life expectancy in China by 2031. Some analysts speculate he is pursuing geopolitical goals for his personal legacy.
China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 22.6% of its total trade.
The yearly volume of trade between the two reached $201 billion in 2022, of which $79 billion was in microchips.
Between 1991 and 2022, Taiwan invested $203 billion in China.
Taiwanese companies control 68% of the global microchips market. One in particular, TSMC, controls 90% of global supply for high-end chips.
China attempts to achieve independence in semiconductors, but currently only produces previous-generation semiconductors.
In 2024, Taiwan’s technology minister stated that the microchip-producing machines could be remotely shut down in case China takes control of them.
The invasion of Taiwan is the most extreme scenario of a conflict over the island.
Other possibilities include a blockade, a political takeover (annexation), economic or hybrid warfare, as well as peaceful coexistence.
Why modelling an invasion?
It forms the basis for countries’ strategic planning
Xi Jinping announced China’s goal of unification with Taiwan
China is improving its amphibious invasion capabilities
To improve understanding of the power balance and key factors
The best available wargame – model of an invasion of Taiwan – is done by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The CSIS wargaming project uses latest open-source data and human players to simulate an invasion in 2026.
What are the findings?
If US does not intervene in the conflict, Taiwan is eventually defeated.
Full-scale military intervention by the US successfully defends Taiwan in most scenarios.
Taiwan, China and the US suffer heavy losses.
What is needed to defend from an invasion?
Taiwan’s will to resist in the first hours or days of aggression
Quick military intervention from the US by striking China’s forces
The US needs to use its airbases in Japan to successfully defend Taiwan.
Sufficient supply of anti-ship missiles
CSIS wargames are limited by the uncertainty on matchup outcomes of US and Chinese military equipment, the lack of access to classified information on secret battlefield advantages, and the focus on 2026.
The US used its entire supply of Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASMs) in the first days of the conflict in most scenarios simulated by CSIS.
These missiles entered service in 2016, but were only purchased in limited numbers.
In 2023, the US launched a multi-year program to buy more missiles with ship-striking capabilities.
The 2024 budget includes over $30 billion on munition purchases, including $11 billion on various hypersonic missiles.
The US Navy and Air Force ordered double the number of LRASMs in 2024 compared with 2022.
By 2027, the yearly procurement should reach 500 such missiles.
The US has other ship-striking missiles, including those intended for other use.
JASSM, the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, has already been produced in large numbers and is likely capable of damaging warships. However, such capacity is not openly confirmed.
SM-6, Standard Missile 6, has proven anti-ship capabilities and is available in the hundreds, with 800 more due for purchase by 2030.
AMRAAM is a lighter, versatile missile intended from aerial combat, with a large stock of it available. However, is is unclear how effective it is at striking warships.
In 2024, the US tested QUICKSINK – a secret anti-ship missile that is designed to be cheaply mass produced, as reported by Reuters.
QUICKSINK is a bomb equipped with a low-cost GPS tracker kit, making it an inexpensive guided munition.
The US military is expected to order thousands of these weapon systems and use them alongside more expensive anti-ship missiles.
In recent years, global militaries have paid increased attention to cheap and mass weapons, such as drones or unmanned vessels. These systems proved effective in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
In 2022, China has surpassed the United States as the largest Navy globally.
It currently lists 234 warships of tonnage over 1,000 metric tons, to the US Navy’s 219.
However, the US Navy remains significantly larger by total water displacement with 7.4 million metric tons to 3.9 million tons of the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army’s Navy).
Key difference in both the naval power and total tonnage is the US advantage in aircraft carriers, with 11 to 3.
The US Navy has a stronger submarine fleet which is fully nuclear-powered.
Another measure of relative strength is the number of missile launchers the Navy has. In 2023, the US Navy had 2.35 times more such systems than the PLAN.
By 2027, China is expected to catch up to the US on the total number of naval missile launchers.
PLAN added over 80 ships, especially the lighter corvettes, since 2012, and produced its first nuclear-powered submarines.
China’s warships are much newer, with over 70% no older than 15 years, compared to 25% for the US.
By US Navy’s measure, China’s surface shipbuilding capacity is currently 232 times higher than that of the US, and 50% of the world’s total.
PLAN ships are made in facilities also used for civilian shipbuilding, allowing for greater maximum capacity.
The United States shipbuilding capacity has been declining since the Second World War and it is unclear if a significant reversal can be achieved even with sufficient investment.
The US Navy has a backlog of ships waiting for maintenance.
In 2025, the US Navy will test repairing ships in international shipyards, such as in Japan and South Korea.
Author Elia Preto Martini
Editor Anton Kutuzov