geopolitics of crypto

Stablecoins, digital currency and international crime

December 22, 2024

Fiat currency (or just currency) is money created by a central bank of a country as cash, coins or bank deposits. Its value comes from the trust in the government that issued the currency. The US dollar or the Chinese yuan are examples of fiat currencies. 

Cryptocurrency (or crypto) is a form of storing money digitally on a network of computers without any central authority overseeing transactions. It uses cryptographic technologies to keep payments confidential and out of any government’s control. Bitcoin, Ethereum or Tether are examples of crypto.

Blockchain is a decentralised digital database that tracks transactions across many computers. Transactions are grouped into blocks with data, timestamps and links to previous blocks. Once created, blocks cannot be deleted or changed, which guarantees transparency. Most crypto uses blockchain to clearly track money.

Stablecoins are a type of crypto that is “tied” directly to a currency like the euro, or to an asset like gold, and guaranteed by the company issuing it. The most popular stablecoins are Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), both linked to the US dollar.

CBDC (central bank digital currency) is the digital version of a country's fiat currency issued directly by the central bank. Like crypto, it usually uses blockchain, but unlike a stablecoin, it is considered identical to a cash version of the currency, not just tied to it in value.

 

Why do cryptocurrencies matter geopolitically?

  • They allow partly anonymous transactions: for bypassing international sanctions, sponsoring political campaigns and funding illegal activities.

  • Challenge the power of the US dollar and other major currencies, as well as government policies worldwide.

  • Raise global carbon emissions because of the concentration of crypto mining operations in a few locations.

  • Provide access to financing for some countries, especially developing nations with low banking access.

  • Can back up savings for citizens during high inflation, currency depreciation, or other crisis periods.

In 2024, around 562 million people globally owned cryptocurrency, an increase of 34% from 2023.

The top-5 countries by the Global Crypto Adoption Index are India, Nigeria, Indonesia, the US and Vietnam. This index ranks countries by where ordinary people invest the largest share of their money into cryptocurrencies.

For the second year, India and Nigeria are leaders in the rating thanks to increasing Blockchain adoption, digital learning initiatives, and a large number of unbanked citizens, even though both have not implemented nationwide crypto regulation laws yet. 

While crypto adoption and trading primarily grow in countries with low banking coverage, crypto mining tends to be located in places with significant or cheap energy resources.

Bitcoin takes over 50% of the crypto market capitalisation and is one of the most common crypto to mine.

Because mining processes are energy-intensive and most energy is currently produced from fossil fuel burning, mining negatively affects the global environment. In 2021, the crypto mining sector demanded almost as much electricity as the whole of Australia or Spain.

Despite a government ban on crypto, China remains a major Bitcoin mining hub (55% of network mining activity), followed by the US (40%). 

Stablecoins are a form of crypto money that can be easily exchanged for the traditional currency at a fixed rate. Originally, they allowed users to easily convert currencies into crypto.

Stablecoins now account for a greater share of the trading volume on the crypto market than Bitcoin and Ethereum combined, being used to hold savings or make international payments.

99% of stablecoins are linked to the dollar.

To ensure that they can guarantee the 1:1 value to the US dollar, issuers of stablecoins buy a lot of US government debt, and are now the 18th largest holders of US debt in the world.

Four G7 countries – Japan, France, Germany, and Italy – have implemented regulations to secure the legal status of stablecoins.

In developing regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, stablecoins make up 43% of the crypto transaction volume.

In Argentina, many are turning to Tether and Bitcoin instead of the US dollar and the local peso to protect their savings from inflation. Bitcoin’s 2024 rise in value made it even more attractive than the dollar which has been a safety net for Argentina for decades. 

Cryptocurrencies' decentralised structure makes them less affected by geopolitical shocks. This was shown in 2021 when China banned crypto, causing mining to relocate to other countries without destabilising the global crypto ecosystem. 

 

Digital currency (CBDC)

Whereas crypto and digital currency share some technologies like blockchain, CBDCs are not cryptocurrencies.

Developing CBDCs is seen as the first step towards enabling overall regulation of digital currencies, including crypto.

Currently, 134 countries are exploring CBDC projects. 14 out of G20 countries are in the active pilot stage.

Brazil and Russia are planning the rollout of their digital currencies by mid-2025, while the US, the UK and Canada are still at a pre-pilot stage. 

The first three countries to fully introduce a CBDC are the Bahamas, Nigeria and Jamaica. The motivation of these countries includes improving financial access and banking gap, reducing money laundering and optimising cash usage.

 

Illegal activities

Local and international terrorist groups are increasingly using cryptocurrencies to raise money, often through social media campaigns.

Hamas used cryptocurrency for fundraising to support its military operations. Between 2019 and 2023, Israeli authorities captured $41 million in crypto wallets linked to Hamas.

ISIS recently started using Monero, a privacy-focused cryptocurrency with stronger secrecy features, over more trackable options like Bitcoin and Tether. 

Information on a regular blockchain is public, so anyone can see the amount paid and the “addresses” of the crypto-wallets used, but does not include any real names or geographical locations.

To track those, investigators use sources like exchange platforms, which are regulated by local governments and required to collect personal registration data.

Cryptocurrencies are also used to bypass international sanctions - since they do not rely on regular banking infrastructure.

In Georgia, an estimated 5-10% of crypto transactions are related to sanctions bypassing.

Iran legalised crypto mining in 2019, supporting it with cheap energy and subsidies, as one of the steps to counteract US sanctions.

Iran requires Bitcoin miners to obtain licenses and sell mined crypto coins directly to its central bank, which uses them to fund imports without dollars. 

Russia legalised crypto mining in July 2024 and is considering launching a cross-border CBDC. This is a policy reversal from the 2022 crypto ban, driven by a need to reduce dollar dependence and support trade during sanctions, while the initial ban was to prevent capital flight from the country.

While domestic crypto payments remain banned, Russia considers stablecoins tied to the yuan or BRICS currencies. Russia also aims to develop crypto and AI data centers across BRICS, reducing reliance on Western systems.

In 2018, Venezuela was one of the first countries that tried to bypass US sanctions by state-supported crypto – the Petro -- claiming to be backed by the country’s oil reserves. Petro was neither a CBDC nor stablecoin. 

Between 2018 and 2023, it had limited uses inside the country, and its 2024 crash was connected to a corruption scandal.

North Korea is a unique example of a state relying on stealing digital assets and money laundering for a significant portion of its income, with $3 billion in hacked cryptocurrency taken between 2017 and 2023. It was used to fund around 50% of the country’s foreign currency needs, including for importing weapons.

Since cryptocurrencies can be used for good or bad, governments work to create national regulations. Most countries do not have solid laws yet and do not directly prohibit crypto usage by individuals.

Less than 10 countries recognise crypto as illegal. 

China, once the global hub for Bitcoin mining, has banned cryptocurrency activities in 2021. Citizens and banks are not allowed to buy or sell digital currencies, while mining and exchanges are outlawed. 

The Chinese government aims to avoid money outflow from the country and any risks to the state-controlled financial system. Instead of legalising risky crypto, the Chinese government is building state-controlled CBDC infrastructure for its digital yuan.

Algeria prohibits the sale, use, or ownership of crypto under its 2018 law seeing risks to national security. In Egypt, Islamic law forbids cryptocurrency emission, promotion, and trading.

Afghanistan under the Taliban went for a radical cryptocurrency ban in 2021 to control economic transactions. The regime views crypto as a threat, with potential imprisonment for crypto users.

In Africa, only South Africa, Nigeria, the Central African Republic, Kenya and Mauritius have regulations or licensing norms for crypto in place.

India puts a 30% tax on crypto income and additional charges, not yet adopting the crypto law that has been stuck in the parliament since 2021.

The US tries to rely on existing laws rather than creating new crypto-specific ones. The legal conflict there is whether crypto should be treated as a financial asset like debt and company stocks, or as a commodity like gold and oil.

El Salvador was the first country to adopt Bitcoin as an official currency in 2021.
 
Reasons:

  • Improving the financial access of citizens (70% did not have a bank account)

  • Decreasing the cost of money transfers sent by Salvadorans from abroad (such transfers make up around 20% of the country’s GDP). 

The government built a Bitcoin Treasury worth nearly $600 million now, but public adoption has been minimal, with 88% of Salvadorans not using Bitcoin.

In December 2024, El Salvador announced it might make Bitcoin acceptance voluntary for businesses instead of mandatory as part of a deal to get $3.3 billion in loans from international bodies like the IMF.

In 2022, the Central African Republic (CAR) became the second to adopt Bitcoin as an official currency. It was aiming to bring foreign investments, despite an 11% internet access rate and a 71% poverty rate.

With the CAR’s strengthening connections with Russia since 2017, Bitcoin adoption is also seen to reduce the country’s reliance on dollars and euros. 

All G20 nations work on crypto laws but are at different stages. Japan was the first to legally define and regulate crypto in 2017.

The European Union introduced a region-wide crypto regulation framework, effective from 2023.

It provides clear crypto classifications and sets rules for consumer and investor protection, including transparency in information and risks.

One of the key rules is a 1 million daily transaction limit and €200m limit on transactions in stablecoins that are not linked to the euro.

Like the EU, Switzerland offers clear crypto classification and taxation, as well as allows innovations to be tested under regulatory supervision. Switzerland’s Zug is known as "Crypto Valley," officially accepting cryptocurrencies for government services since 2016.

Brazil is a leader in blockchain and CBDC pilots in Latin America. New regulations effective from 2025 aim to integrate crypto into the country’s financial ecosystem.

Hong Kong launched a new crypto regulatory regime in 2023 to position itself as a safe digital asset hub in Asia.

Unlike mainland China, Hong Kong permits crypto trading, classifying it as virtual assets, and requires licensing. 

The United Arab Emirates is actively working to become a crypto hub in the region. It was the first country globally to establish a crypto-specific regulatory body in 2022. 

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have not shared UAE’s enthusiasm initially, but have now reverted their crypto bans and are working on legal regulations.

 

Future

Several countries are exploring Bitcoin as a reserve currency instead of making it an official currency. 

Donald Trump mentioned the idea of creating a national Bitcoin reserve.

This could:

  • protect against potential dollar devaluation

  • help repay debts, assuming Bitcoin’s value will rise

A move by the US to purchase Bitcoin is likely to cause a jump in its price, and is one of the factors behind Bitcoin’s recent rise in value.

In Brazil, a congressman proposed gradually acquiring Bitcoin until it makes up 5% of national reserves.

The attractiveness of Bitcoin as a global currency is in it not being controlled by any state.

Created in 2009 after the financial crisis, it reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability as the global reserve currency due to rising US debt and questionable interest rate policies.

China and Russia are seen as those that may leverage Bitcoin or other crypto to weaken the USD. Seeing the dollar as a weapon, Russia is considering to build its national Bitcoin reserve too.

However, even with Bitcoin becoming a minor reserve currency, it is highly unlikely to break the US dollar’s dominance:

  • Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins

  • Bitcoin has high price volatiltiy that is hard to predict

  • Bitcoin is not legally regulated

The 2024 BRICS Summit revisited the idea of creating a shared currency for the bloc to challenge the dollar.

The exact solution is not specified, but potential concepts include a blockchain-based SWIFT replacement, a coin backed by gold, and a cross-border CBDC. 

However, advancements in the US crypto sector under Trump could even strengthen the dollar’s dominance. 

Creation of joint crypto regulations in the EU (MiCA) and planning shared crypto policy roadmaps among G20 recognise their global geopolitical importance, especially for international security.

Author Ostap Salovskyi

Editor Anton Kutuzov

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