Macron’s first
presidency, revisited.
Yellow vests, Sahel and reforming EU
January 19, 2025
In 2017, France elected its youngest ever president, Emmanuel Macron.
He was challenged by mass protests, instability in Africa, Covid pandemic, Russian invasion of Ukraine and the following energy crisis.
In 2022, Macron was re-elected for a new 5-year term.
Emmanuel Macron was the Minister of Economics and Finance under the previous president, François Hollande.
In that period, from 2012 to 2017:
The economy’s average growth rate was 0.8%, compared to the EU average of 1.4%.
Unemployment rate reached a 20-year peak by 2013, and continued growing until 2015.
Hollande introduced a 75% income tax on earnings above 1 million euros, but removed it after a year, as earnings were moderate, and investment climate was damaged.
There were five Islamist terrorist attacks in 2012-17, compared to two during Sarkozy's presidency (2007-2012).
There were violent protests against the labour reform due to increased flexibility and easier layoffs.
At the international level:
Mali called for a French military intervention after jihadist groups attacked its capital, with the campaign lasting from 2013 to 2022 and ultimately failing to establish stability in the region.
France hosted the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015, where the Paris Agreement was drafted, aiming to keep global warming below a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels.
France was involved in the negotiations and signing of the deal with Iran to restrain its nuclear development, which France first proposed in 2003.
According to an October 2016 poll, 70% of the respondents were dissatisfied with Hollande's presidency, and 4% were satisfied.
In the first round of the 2017 presidential election:
President Hollande did not run for re-election. His Socialist Party fell from 28.6% of the votes in 2012 to 6.4%. Benoît Hamon presented a more left-wing program than Hollande, including cannabis legalisation and introducing universal basic income.
The centre-right candidate, François Fillon, was involved in a scandal about paying his wife and children for fake parliamentary jobs. He still ran, receiving 20% of the votes, down from 27% in 2012. Fillon was later sentenced to 5 years in prison for these crimes, but did not spend any time there: it is common in France to replace short prison sentences with house arrest for non-violent crimes.
Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19.6% of the votes. His party’s program included a 100% tax on yearly income above 400,000 euros, withdrawal from NATO, a minimum wage of 1,300 euros and renegotiating EU limitations on how much money France can borrow.
Emmanuel Macron's newly-formed party En Marche! (centre/centre-left) proposed a pro-business and pro-investment economic program, as well as a pro-EU attitude. He received 24% of the votes, followed by Marine Le Pen with 21.3%.
Marine Le Pen's manifesto included:
Holding a referendum on France's exit from the Eurozone
Implementing a 3% tariff on imports and rejecting international trade agreements
Increasing defence spending
Limiting migration to a maximum of 10,000 people per year
Reducing taxes for small and medium businesses
Lowering the retirement age to 60 from 62
Hours before the second round of the presidential election, thousands of emails and internal documents from Macron's party were leaked. According to the US and the UK, Russia-linked hackers were responsible for the attack, but French officials did not attribute responsibility.
Emmanuel Macron won the second round with 66.1% of the votes against 33.9% of Marine Le Pen.
Economy
From 2017 to the pandemic’s outbreak in 2020, the French government adopted the following reforms:
Taxation
In 2018, the wealth tax was replaced with an annual tax on real estate holdings and a 30% tax on capital income.
Wealth tax is paid annually and is calculated as a share of all assets you hold at the time.
Result: In 2021, France Stratégie, a government-funded institute, reported that it was impossible to determine whether the abolition of the wealth tax had redirected taxpayers' savings toward financing businesses, as initially intended.
The corporate tax was reduced from 33.3% to 25%.
Labour reform
The labour code reform introduced a greater role to employer negotiations with workers over sector-level discussions, facilitated layoffs, and increased unemployment benefits.
Result: The share of long-term contracts among new hires increased from 45.8% in May 2017 to 49.6% in October 2019. The employment rate has increased from 65.1% in Q1 2017 to 66.8% in Q4 2019.
Railway reform
The reform of the French State Railway Company ended its employees' generous job and pension guarantees and turned it into a joint-stock company.
Yellow Vests protests
In November 2018, the Yellow Vests mass protests started across France in response to the government's decision to impose a green tax on fuel.
Goals:
Lower taxes for low earners, higher taxes for high earners
Increase of the minimum wage
Increased government spending
Improved democracy
Higher standards of living
The protests started in rural areas where public services deteriorated and long commutes were common, before spreading to major cities like Paris.
The first Yellow Vest protest in November 2018, was attended by 287,000 people.
The French government responded by eliminating the fuel tax planned for the 2019 budget, but tens of thousands of protesters continued to gather regularly into December.
On December 10th, Macron sat for a special televised address and announced a package of reforms, including an increase to the minimal wage for low earners of 100 euros a month.
Despite that, the protests continued regularly through 2019.
A total of eleven people were killed, and 2,448 were hurt during the demonstrations.
Macron also launched the “Grand National Debate” — a series of gatherings where people could speak to their local mayors on tax and government spending, ecological transition, public services, and democracy.
Following the debate, Macron announced several more measures, including increasing pensions, reducing income tax for low and average earners, and reforming France's civil service to make it more meritocratic.
France and the EU
During a speech in September 2017 at Sorbonne University, Macron outlined priorities to strengthen the European Union.
Defence
In 2018, a joint European intervention force was established, that could theoretically be used voluntarily in case of need.
The European Defence Fund started operating in 2021 with an $8 billion budget to support research and development projects and finance defence capabilities.
The EU still relies on the US for its security. In 2023, the US has a defence spending of $860 billion, compared to $68 billion for Germany, $56 billion for France and $31 billion for Italy.
Despite France having approximately 290 nuclear warheads for deterrence, the EU depends on the US nuclear arsenal and on roughly 100,000 troops stationed on the continent.
Budget
The EU budget proposed by Macron was not realised.
However, some reforms were adopted:
A new financial tool was established in 2019, aiming to support reforms and investment with a limited budget size.
The €750 billion Recovery and Resilience Facility was established in 2020 to promote economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and foster the digital and green transition, funded through joint EU debt issuance.
Green transition
Macron's vision of ecological leadership aligned with the 2020 European Green Deal, a set of policies to combat climate change and make the continent carbon neutral by 2050.
In 2021, the EU established a tariff on imported goods based on the greenhouse gas emissions associated with their production.
Immigration
In 2020, the EU Commission proposed the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, which will take effect in 2026 after years of negotiations. It includes a set of new rules on screening procedures, border and return procedures, and establishes a new asylum and migration database.
The core principle of the Pact is that migrants arriving at the EU are not considered to have legally entered its territory and must undergo a "border procedure". Migrants deemed dangerous may be returned to their home countries more quickly.
European border police was not established, but the European Border and Coast Guard Agency's (Frontex) mandate was expanded. By 2027, it will include a standing corps of approximately 10,000 officers with enhanced capabilities for the return process.
Innovation
In 2021, the EU introduced a tool to support innovative technologies. Its budget is limited to $10 billion and it is focused on financially supporting small and medium enterprises.
The EU abandoned plans for a tech tax in 2021.
In 2022, the EU adopted regulations requiring tech companies to ask for user consent on data tracking, stop sharing data with third parties, and not use their dominant market position to promote their services.
Middle East and Africa
France has important objectives in the Middle East and Africa, including:
Showcasing regional influence through diplomacy.
Curbing irregular migration flows transiting through Libya.
Countering terrorism in Libya and the Sahel region.
Securing its arms sales to Middle Eastern countries, which accounted for 34% of its total arms exports in 2024.
Securing energy supplies from Iraq, Libya, and other Middle Eastern countries where its company TotalEnergies operates.
Lebanon
After the 2020 Beirut port explosion, Macron visited the city and pledged to raise funds for Lebanon, emphasising that the country needed to establish a "new political order" to regain the trust of its people.
In September 2020, France presented a roadmap to the Lebanese government to reform the country's economy and politics, which has never been fully implemented.
In August 2021, an international donor conference co-hosted by France and the UN raised $370 million in aid for Lebanon, surpassing the initial target of $350 million. France contributed approximately $118 million.
Libya
Since 2014, Libya is split between the governments of general Haftar and the UN-backed Government of National Accord.
In 2017, France hosted a summit between the leaders of the factions to reach a peace agreement, which did not succeed.
France has been accused of supporting Haftar, hoping he could become an ally in fighting terrorism and reducing migration flows to Europe.
There is evidence that French troops have trained and assisted Haftar forces since 2015. France has officially rejected these allegations.
Iraq
Macron supported the unity of Iraq and opposed the 2017 Kurdish referendum for independence, aiming to prevent destabilisation of the country.
France was the second-largest military contributor to the US-led coalition against ISIS.
After ISIS's defeat, France has been involved in revitalising Iraq's energy sector. In September 2021, TotalEnergies signed a $27 billion deal with Iraq, aiming to boost the country's domestic production of oil, gas and renewable energy.
Sahel
In 2013, France sent over 4,000 troops at Mali’s request and with United Nation support, to defend Mali’s capital from jihadist groups.
The intervention was a success, with Malian-French forces regaining control over Northern Mali.
Over 5,000 troops were then stationed by France in Mali and eventually Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania and Niger to suppress Islamist groups in the Sahel.
Despite the initial success, since 2017 the number of militant-related violent deaths in the region continued to grow.
After two military coups in Mali in 2020 and 2021, the new government has allowed Russia to deploy its mercenary company Wagner Group in the country, and eventually wanted the French troops out.
By 2022, France withdrew all their troops from the region.
COVID-19 pandemic
As of December 2022,
France had a cumulative infection rate of 57,763 cases per 100,000 people, which was higher than the EU average of 40,271.
France had a cumulative death rate of 238.9 per 100,000 people, which was lower than the EU average of 264.6.
France's vaccination rate was 82.45%, exceeding the EU average of 75.06%.
France tackled the COVID-19 pandemic with measures like increased spending on healthcare, state-guaranteed loans to firms, and economic help for self-employed workers.
From 2020 to 2022, France was Europe's third-largest spender on aid for COVID-19 measures, both in total value and as a percentage of GDP.
Ukraine invasion and re-election
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Macron stated that France should be "a mediating power". His approach to the conflict changed over the years, and in 2024, he refused to rule out the possibility of deploying troops to support Ukraine.
Macron won the second round of the 2022 Presidential elections, securing 58.5% of the vote against Marine Le Pen's 41.5%.
As of August 2024, France ranked as the 10th largest global donor of financial, military, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. From February 2022 to December 2023, the total value of military equipment sent by France to Ukraine was about $2.8 billion.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to the global increase in energy prices and inflation.
France's inflation peaked at 5.9% in 2022, then decreased to 5.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024.
To reduce the effects of inflation, France imposed a limit on the increase of natural gas and electricity prices and provided $65 billion in economic aid to its citizens.
Overall, France was less exposed than other European countries to the energy crisis since it imported 22.5% of its gas from Russia, lower than the 39.4% of Italy and 48.8% of Germany.
As a result, these countries accelerated their adoption of renewable energy. Germany saw its share of electricity production from renewable sources increase from 32.7% in 2022 to 39.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, France raised its share from 12.7% to 14% in that time, and Italy increased its share from 17.2% to 20.7%.
Author Elia Preto Martini
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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