Why Ukraine didn’t get enough aid to defeat Russia?

3 factors of failure

18 Jan 2024

Key points:

• In almost two years of war, Ukraine received €242 billion in direct aid from governments and EU institutions, €98 billion of which for military needs.

• Meanwhile, Russia also splashed about €100 billion (9.6 trillion rubles) on military spending in 2022 and 2023 combined. 

• Political disagreements in the US and Europe made it hard to decide on specifics of aid, while bureaucratic procedures slowed the implementation of these decisions.

• Bottlenecks in supply and lack of preparedness limited the potential for military aid.

• Ukraine’s allies faced over €500 billion in costs of subsidising energy prices in 2022, as the war further uprooted global energy and food markets. 

• In 2024, aid to Ukraine is at an all-time low and approaching a crucial turning point. 

• $61 billion of aid for Ukraine are unable to pass through US Congress, despite over 75% of congressmen in support of it.

• In Europe, a €50 billion aid package from the EU has been blocked by Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, a long-standing ally and partner of Vladimir Putin.  

• By 2024, the West has let the opportunity to stop Putin while he is down slip.

• Vladimir Putin is in an existential war against the Western world order and is not going to step off this path.

In almost two years of war, Ukraine received €242 billion in direct aid from governments and EU institutions, €98 billion of which for military needs.

This was enough to sustain Ukraine’s defensive potential and keep its economy alive, despite ruined infrastructure.

However, the aid proved insufficient to help Ukraine defeat Russia on the ground and force it to withdraw from occupied territories.

Meanwhile, Russia also splashed about €100 billion (9.6 trillion rubles) on military spending in 2022 and 2023 combined.

Another €111 billion are set aside by Russia for military needs in 2024 alone, showing the committed transition to a war economy.

Approximately €300 billion of Russian Central Bank’s reserve assets are blocked by US allies, but no legal mechanism for using them was agreed.

The volume of aid to Ukraine is low by historical comparison.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the United States and Germany committed three times more money to liberate Kuwait than their aid to Ukraine in 2022.

Similarly, every year of war in Vietnam, Korea or Iraq cost the US more than their total military aid to Ukraine.

One year ago, Ukraine was preparing a large counteroffensive after successfully liberating big chunks of territory in September, October and November 2022.

In December 2022, General Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces, told The Economist that he needs 300 tanks and 500 howitzers for success to be realistic.

In the next 6 months, Ukraine received less than 150 howitzers and just over 250 tanks.

Why Ukraine’s allies did not commit enough military aid to overwhelm the Russian army?

What do you think?

Image: Russian missile launch system

First, political disagreements in the US and Europe made it hard to decide on specifics of aid, while bureaucratic procedures slowed the implementation of these decisions.

Before the invasion and in its early days, the argument against sending weapons to Ukraine was that their military is unable to survive the Russian offensive.

Ukraine’s successful resistance to the invasion proved that sending heavy weapons to them is not pointless.

Avoiding escalation of conflict became the main argument against military aid to Ukraine.

Sending battle tanks, MLRS, long-range missiles and fighter jets (all eventually committed) was seen as potentially causing Russia to carry out a nuclear strike or attack a NATO member.

Calls on NATO to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine (by shooting down any Russian airplanes) have been rejected due to same concerns.

Russia has successfully played on these debates through both official statements and media operations.

The United States is only able to provide aid to Ukraine through an act of Congress.

By 2022 invasion, the federal budget for the year was already approved, so initial aid has been provided through two emergency spending bills, however, no such bills were passed since.

US aid to Ukraine for 2023 was approved in a package with all other supplementary spending for the fiscal year.

No additional spending on Ukraine aid was approved by the Congress since December 2022, as of January 2024.

European Union institutions provided strong financial support to Ukraine, but military aid was mostly provided by individual countries.

Most countries stayed in line with US commitments, with Russia’s and Ukraine’s immediate neighbours making outsized contributions.

This resulted in a slow stream of aid, enough to sustain Ukraine’s defensive effort and economy, but not to achieve a military advantage.

Second, Ukraine’s allies faced over €500 billion in costs of subsidising energy prices in 2022, as the war further uprooted global energy and food markets.

In 2021, faster-than-expected economic recovery from the pandemic pushed up the prices of gas, oil, coal and other energy sources.

In November 2021, gas prices jumped further as Germany suspended the launch of Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, which was long opposed by the US.

Despite this, Europe’s extreme dependency on Russian gas and oil imports remained.

After the invasion, Russia further cut its gas and oil exports to Europe in response to sanctions and support for Ukraine, sending oil, gas and electricity prices to record highs.

This triggered a further shock to global food and fertiliser markets, worsened by Russian blockade on Ukrainian grain exports.

Europe was forced to adjust rapidly, turning to Liquified Natural Gas and other sources of energy, as their populations faced severe rise in cost of living.

European countries allocated over €650 billion to address the energy crisis between September 2021 and January 2023, mostly on subsidising energy costs for consumers in 2022.

Germany had to spend €34.5 billion to rescue a gas importing firm Uniper.

The US and especially Europe have already spent heavily during the pandemic and were faced with a dramatic cost of subsidising energy prices in 2022, which reduced their ability to mobilise larger funds for Ukraine, as they prioritised domestic spending.

Finally, bottlenecks in supply and lack of preparedness limited the potential for military aid.

Since the end of the Cold War, Europe’s defense spending has been cut dramatically.

European armies had 80% fewer main battle tanks in 2022 than in 1992.

Low stocks and shrunken armaments industry limited the amount of weapons and ammunition that could be supplied to Ukraine freely.

As an example, we consider 155mm artillery shells - the main ammunition for NATO howitzers.

Ukrainian military officials have been particularly frustrated by the inability to match Russian artillery due to lack of these 155mm shells.

By February 2022, US and Europe could produce around 33,000 of 155mm shells per month, or just over 1,000 per day.

During its counteroffensive, Ukraine used around 6,000 shells daily, and needed much more, while Russia fired as many as 60,000 of equivalent rounds on some days, due to its vast Soviet-era stockpiles.

The US has since doubled its manufacturing rate due to strong government control of the weapons industry, while European private companies expanded at a slower rate.

Estimates suggest that by 2025 production capacity could be sufficiently increased, however the need might not remain, while Russia is also making large investments in military production capabilities.

In 2024, aid to Ukraine is at an all-time low and approaching a crucial turning point.

$61 billion of aid for Ukraine are unable to pass through US Congress, despite over 75% of congressmen in support of it.

The package is voted on together with other supplementary spending programs, including support for Israel and Taiwan, as well as addressing the emergency on US-Mexico border.

Democrats and Republicans are mainly disagreeing on measures to respond to rapidly growing number of illegal border crossings from Mexico, currently measuring millions per year.

Biden administration’s decision to bundle aid for Ukraine with other spending causes to avoid opposition in Congress has backfired, as the other issues became more divisive.

In Europe, a €50 billion aid package from the EU has been blocked by Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, a long-standing ally and partner of Vladimir Putin.

It is expected that a deal will be struck to unblock the funds, but concessions will have to be given to Mr Orbán, as crucial time has already been wasted.

Viktor Orbán, like other EU leaders, has a right to veto any strategic decision of the alliance, which he may continue using to further Russian interests.

An EU country can be stripped of the right to veto, but it would require a complicated and unprecedented bureaucratic procedure, forcing European leaders to negotiate instead.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom recently approved a £2.5 billion Ukraine military aid package for 2024.

Even with all pending aid approved, Ukraine’s allies are only keeping up with the rate of Russia’s war spending.

By 2024, Russia has invested strongly in heavy fortifications along the frontline.

Russia is successfully transitioning its economy and industry to supporting the war effort, set to increase military spending by 70% this year.

In 2022 Russia was on the ropes, having choked the invasion of Ukraine.

Its economy was unprepared, its army was caught off-balance, its political elites were scrambling.

By 2024, the West has let the opportunity to stop Putin while he is down slip.

Now, giving Ukraine a military advantage over Russia requires more resources than ever.

Going forward, the West is likely to continue slowly ramping up its military support, with fighter jets being the center of Ukrainian hopes, but their arrival is unlikely to cause a tidal shift in the war.

The war is likely to remain positional, with a continuous possibility of Russia overwhelming Ukrainian defenses without enough support.

A potential truce or ceasefire may freeze the conflict, but are highly unlikely to remove Russian military threat to Europe.

Vladimir Putin seems locked in an existential war against the Western world order.

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