10 years ago India
Elected modi
We revieW HIS promises FROM 2014.
May 27, 2024
INDIA’S DOMESTIC POLITICS BEFORE MODI
India’s political system
India operates under a system where the central authority and the states have distinct responsibilities and powers, a federal parliamentary republic.
The Parliament of India consists of two houses.
The first is the Lok Sabha (House of the People), whose members are elected by the people's vote.
The second is the Rajya Sabha (Council of States), whose members are mostly elected by state-level authorities with some appointed by the President for contributions to arts, science or social service.
The Prime Minister of India, along with the Union Council of Ministers, forms the executive government, while the Indian President is constitutionally the head of the state.
Key political issues in India by 2014
After gaining independence from the United Kingdom in 1947, India initiated a state-building process. The center-left Indian National Congress (INC) party played a crucial role during this period, particularly under the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru.
Indian policymakers focused on land reform and industrialisation with a socialist economic model based on five-year plans and a dominant public sector.
In the late 1980s, militant and terrorist organisations emerged in the Kashmir region, whose sovereignty both India and Pakistan claim.
These groups have since posed a national security threat to India. In 2008, terrorists from the Lashkar-e-Taiba organisation carried out coordinated attacks in Mumbai, killing 166 people.
After the 1991 economic crisis, India adopted a market-oriented model, still under INC leadership. It led to strong economic growth and increased integration with the world economy.
Corruption has always been a present issue impacting domestic politics in India. A series of corruption scandals through the 2000s, aided by the 2005 Right to Information Act, resulted in widespread anti-corruption protests in 2011.
In 2014, Narendra Modi won a landslide victory and became the Prime Minister of India. His party single-handedly secured the simple majority of seats in the Lok Sabha, after 25 years of coalition governments.
MODI'S PROMISES IN 2014
A. ECONOMY
Fight inflation
The BJP made fighting inflation one of its most significant promises in 2014. The Modi government set the Indian Central Bank's inflation target at 4%, with a 2% point band.
In March 2014, Indian inflation stood at 8.48%. A decade later, it had dropped to 4.85%. However, food inflation remained high, reaching 8.70% in April 2024.
The Indian government imposed market controls on agricultural goods to curb food inflation, which meant the farmers have paid for the government's inflation target with lower earnings.
In summary, the government has managed to keep inflation within its target range of 4% (+/-2%). However, this achievement has had negative impacts on the agricultural sector. Food inflation has increased rapidly, also influenced by external factors like supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and rising prices of imported crude oil and pulses.
Increase manufacturing employment
Modi promised to enhance employment by developing labour-intensive manufacturing. In September 2014, he launched the 'Make in India' initiative, aiming to expand the share of manufacturing to 25% of GDP.
From 2014 to 2022, the share of manufacturing in the GDP has fluctuated between 13% and 16%. The number of farmers increased by 60 million between 2020 and 2024.
Overall, India's unemployment rate was 5.44% in 2014 and increased to 6.57% in 2024, with a peak of 8% last year.
In summary, Modi did not achieve his employment goals. Data shows that the Indian manufacturing sector had lost 11 million jobs since 2014 before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reform and digitalise the finance sector
In its 2014 manifesto, BJP promised to “undertake banking reforms to enhance ease and access, as well as accountability”, to “encourage savings as an important driver of investment and growth” and to “use mobile and e-Banking to ensure financial inclusion”.
In 2016, Raghuram Rajan, the then-governor of the Reserve Bank of India, introduced the Unified Payment Interface (UPI), an instant payments solutiom that allows money transfers to individuals, stores and businesses.
India leads the world in terms of number of real-time payments with around 300 million active users as of 2024.
Mastercard's 2022 New Payments Index revealed that people in India are the most willing in the Asia-Pacific region to use cashless payments, which the introduction of UPI has influenced.
A process of internationalising UPI has recently begun, involving Sri Lanka, France, the UAE, and Singapore. This step will reduce costs and accelerate money transfers from and to India. Given the World Bank estimates of India's remittances exceeding US$100 billion in 2022, it has enormous potential.
In summary, India made significant advancements in overcoming some of the most critical digital payments shortcomings, which, in 2015, were reportedly being a cash-dependent society, deficiency of trust in digital payments, lack of financial inclusion, and inadequate digital infrastructure.
B. SECURITY AND EXTERNAL RELATIONS
Kashmir
In its 2014 manifesto, the BJP reiterated its commitment to revoking the Indian constitution's article 370, which granted special autonomy status to the Kashmir region.
In August 2019, Modi’s Presidential Order supported by a parliamentary resolution repealed almost all of Article 370.
Kashmir was divided into two separate federally administered territories — Ladakh and Jammu-Kashmir.
Protests and clashes erupted between Indian security forces and the Kashmiri population. The Indian government responded by deploying thousands of additional troops, imposing a communications blackout and enforcing a curfew.
Pakistan, which considers Kashmir a part of its territory due to the Muslim majority of the region’s population, denounced Modi's decision and downscaled its relations with India
In summary, Modi has remained true to his 2014 promise and his decision has received widespread support from India's population. At the same time, Article 370 revocation was condemned by major stakeholders in Asia, such as Pakistan, China, Turkey and Malaysia.
Relations with Pakistan
The BJP party also pledged to "pursue friendly relations [in our neighbourhood]. However, [...] we will not hesitate to take strong stand and steps."
This promise mainly referred to India's relationship with Pakistan, which hosts terrorist organisations threatening Delhi's national security.
Tensions escalated in February 2019 when a suicide attack carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistam-based terrorist organisation, killed more than 40 soldiers in the India-administered Kashmir.
Modi’s government responded with an airstrike inside Pakistan's territory targeting a Jaish-e-Mohammed base.
In summary, Modi maintained a tough approach to regional affairs when India's national security was threatened. The response to Pakistan marked a significant military shift in bilateral relations as it showed that India could use its airpower inside Pakistan without the risk of immediate nuclear escalation.
C. GOVERNANCE
Fight corruption
In the aftermath of the 2011 anti-corruption protests, Modi pledged to eradicate corruption and implement government digitalisation.
When he was elected in 2014, India was ranked 85th out of 175 countries in the Corruption Perception Index. By 2023, it had dropped to 93rd out of 180 countries.
However, the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the agency responsible for combating economic crimes, has seen a rise in its activities. There were 5,155 cases opened under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act between 2014-2024, compared to 1,797 cases between 2004 and 2014.
This increase in activities by the ED was met with criticism. Between 2014 and 2022, the ED investigated 121 political leaders, with 115 of these being from the opposition
In summary, India has made significant progress in fighting corruption. However, new tools have been used to target the opposition.
Reduce the size of government
In its 2014 manifesto, the BJP advocated for a "policy-driven, minimum government, maximum governance" model. This extends to several areas including the economy and state administration.
Economy: In 2017, Modi abolished the five-year plans, putting an end to a socialist-style economic model. However, his government kept investing heavily into infrastructure and rural development projects. Public spending as a percentage of GDP increased from 26.2% in 2014 to 28.6% in 2022.
State administration: Modi’s government aimed to create a more efficient and non-politicised bureaucracy. In September 2020, it approved a major reform in civil servant training – Mission Karmayogi. Additionally, it introduced the Annual Performance Appraisal Report (APAR) to evaluate the performance of bureaucrats more transparently.
In summary, Modi has taken steps towards "minimum government, maximum governance" model and transparency in the public sector has moderately increased, but his government kept spending heavily.
D. ENVIRONMENT AND HEALTH
Clean the Ganges River
In May 2014, Modi told the Indian Parliament that "it is my destiny to serve Maa Ganga (the Ganges River)".
One month later, he launched the "Namami Gange" programme to reduce pollution, sanitise the river’s basin (which hosts more than 40% of the Indian population) and boost conservation efforts.
Domestic sewage and industrial waste are major sources of pollution in the Ganges River. The contaminated water frequently spreads cholera, dysentery, and other diseases.
As of May 2024, the government has allocated approximately $3.7 billion to the 'Namami Gange' programme. The programme has so far:
Implemented about 100 sewage projects.
Cleaned the river’s surface of floating waste.
Enhanced monitoring of pollution from heavily polluting industries
In summary, Modi’s government has improved the Ganges' water quality and hygienic levels but has not yet been able to solve the root cause of these problems. Evidence indicates that industries and households are still dumping waste into the river. Moreover, in January 2023, 71% of Ganges' monitoring stations reported high levels of faecal coliform, a bacteria found in the faeces of some animals.
Sanitation access
The BJP pledged to "enable people to build toilets in their homes as well as in schools and public places."
In October 2014, the Indian government launched the first phase of the "Clean India Mission", which ended in October 2019. The mission aimed to address chronic hygiene issues in India, particularly open defecation.
Under this programme, the government has granted the construction of about 100 million toilets across India. Independent research confirmed that open defecation has decreased from 38.88% of households in 2015–16 to 19.36% in 2019–21.
In summary, the "Clean India Mission" is widely believed to have improved India's hygienic conditions with a massive-scale toilet-building and behavioural change campaign. International organisations like UNICEF and the Melinda Gates Foundation have praised the initiative
INDIA'S GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE
Under Modi's ten-year rule, India's foreign policy has become a significant domestic political issue. According to an Indian public opinion poll, 63% of the respondents affirmed that India's global standing has improved over the past decade.
India's leadership has increasingly emphasised the concept of being a civilisational power. According to Modi, India is overcoming a 1,200-year-old "slave mentality" and proudly embracing its historical heritage.
One recent example of India's global advancement was hosting the G20 summit in Delhi in 2023.
Over the past decade, Modi has remained committed to the majority of India's foreign policy principles. These are:
Strengthening the defence partnership with the US.
Viewing China as the main regional rival.
Countering Pakistan's claims over disputed areas and national security threats from Pakistan-based terrorist groups.
Maintaining economic ties with Russia, particularly in oil imports.
Upholding strategic independence. This is evidenced by India's membership in organisations with conflicting objectives, such as the China-led BRICS and the US-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD).
India, with its 1.43 billion people and $4.11 trillion GDP, is emerging as a global superpower in contention for becoming the world’s largest economy.
This idea gained traction after the liberalisation process began in 1991, overcoming some socialist features of India's economy.
That year could be seen as a turning point in the global perception of India. On July 8, a New York Times headline quotes then-Minister of Finance – “India Is Now in a New Ball Game”, translating his hopes for “multinationals to look upon India as an opportunity for investment”.
Nowadays, international trade, foreign direct investments and the financial market play an increasingly important role in the country's economy.
Particularly, India's market capitalisation has boomed in recent years, reaching $5 trillion in March 2024.
India is considered the world’s largest democracy, despite some criticism of its standards, and presents a less authoritarian development model to its closest geopolitical comparison, China.
However, critical issues such as low literacy rate, widespread poverty, high unemployment and governance weaknesses still undermine Modi's “Indian Dream”.
Author Elia Preto Martini
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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