Global arms trade, explained
Geopolitics of weapon sales
March 9, 2025
International weapons sales were declining after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Since the 2000s, however, they have increased continuously.
US firms dominate the top fifteen arms-producing and military services companies, with Chinese and European firms following up.
Some arms manufacturers, such as Lockheed Martin, make most of their money from arms sales while others, like Boeing, also produce goods for civilian purposes.
Between 2015 and 2023, the world’s largest arms manufacturers combined revenue grew by 48%, going from $300 billion to over $445 billion.
While a lot of this is driven by an increase in domestic military spending, mainly the US defence budget growing, a significant portion is also driven by the international arms trade.
Most countries, including most major economies, are unable to produce the full range of weapons a modern army requires. This creates the need to import arms.
Between 2019 and 2023, Asia and Oceania received 37% of all major conventional arms imports while the Middle East imported approximately 30%.
By contrast, Africa’s imports stood at 4.3%.
While wealthier states mainly import complex systems, such as fighter jets or tanks, some poorer countries are focused on importing basic equipment like firearms.
Weapons imports and exports are concentrated in just a few countries.
The US is responsible for 42% of all weapons exports globally. France and Russia each export about 11%, while China, Germany, Italy and the UK follow with 3-6% each.
United States
Three post-Cold War trends have boosted US arms exports:
The expansion of NATO
The Global War on Terror
The more recent increase in armed conflict
With a nearly trillion-dollar annual budget, the US military’s purchase of weapons has led to the development of an advanced and complex arms industry in the country.
This ranges from fighter jets and warships to drones and firearms.
As a result, the US is able to export a wide array of weaponry.
2019-23: US delivered major arms to 107 countries, more than the next two biggest exporters combined.
Despite this, given how expensive US weapons are to purchase and operate, their biggest importers are generally wealthy allies and partners, such as Australia, Japan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
Russia
Russian arms exports have benefited from the legacy of the Soviet Union’s large and advanced military-industrial complex.
Russian weapons are also comparatively cheaper than US-made ones, making its arms exports competitive. They benefit from:
Lower production costs
Large industrial base
State support
Significant natural resources
Ten countries purchase 90% of Russian arms exports, with biggest buyers being India (23.3%), China (18.2%) and Algeria (14.9%) between 2016 and 2020.
Since 2022, increased demands from the Russian army for the war in Ukraine has made it harder for Russia to meet export targets.
Additionally, Western sanctions have made it more difficult for Russian manufacturers to make advanced weaponry since they rely on imported components, often made by the US or its allies.
As a result, Russia had to rely on sanctions evasion, such as importing components through third countries.
Russia also increased imports from its allies like Iran and North Korea.
Nevertheless, the ongoing militarisation of the Russia economy and large defence spending has boosted its arms production.
This positions Russia well to boost weapons exports once its war with Ukraine ends, or at least becomes less intense.
France
France has risen to become the world’s second biggest arms exporter.
While it sells a wide range of weapons, one of its strong points has been fighter jets, especially the Rafale.
Long-running Turkish-Greek tensions has led to Greece buying 24 Rafale jets.
India’s growing defence budget and efforts to diversify suppliers has led to it increasingly buying French aircraft. Qatar and Egypt have also purchased French combat planes.
France’s rise as an arms exporter has partially come at the expense of Russia, whose exports had already been declining prior to 2022.
Because of their smaller budgets, European countries engage in joint production.
In an effort to create advanced fighter jets while sharing the cost, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK co-created the Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft.
It is not only used by European countries, but also by Middle Eastern countries like Kuwait and Oman.
Germany
Despite its peaceful post-war history, Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, is also a significant arms exporter.
German exports reached an all-time high at $13.7 billion in 2024. January-June 2024 saw a 30% increase compared to the same time period in 2023.
A majority of German arms exports went to Ukraine. Other importers of German weapons were India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
While Asia has been a major importer of arms, it is also a significant source of weapons exports.
China
China’s biggest arms purchaser is its neighbour Pakistan.
Sales include frigates for the Pakistani navy, co-development of the JF-17 aircraft, and the sale of tracking systems against nuclear missiles.
74% of Bangladesh’s arms imports in 2010-20 came from China.
Myanmar is the third biggest importer of Chinese arms, including aircraft, drones, frigates and armoured vehicles.
Chinese arms exports to Africa have also grown in the 21st century, both in terms of relative share and total amount.
Almost half of Chinese exports to the continent goes to countries in Northern Africa.
In Latin America, 85.8% of Chinese arms exports between 2010 and 2020 went to Venezuela.
Meanwhile, the majority of Chinese arms imports come from Russia.
In the 1990s, as the Chinese military began a new effort to modernise but was unable to import from the West because of an arms embargo, their weapons trade with Russia grew.
As a result of Western sanctions on Russia, Russia has turned to China for key weapons components, such as chips and machinery, in order to continue to produce its own weapons.
South Korea
South Korea has emerged as a new player in the international arms trade, benefiting significantly from growing European demand.
For example, South Korea has signed deals with Poland, which includes the sales of 1,000 tanks, 672 howitzers, 288 multiple-rocket launchers and 48 fourth-generation fighter jets.
South Korean arms exports benefit from:
High-quality manufacturing
Quick delivery time
Competitive costs
Strong relationship with the US
Countries export weapons for both political and economic reasons.
The largest arms manufacturers generate billions of dollars in annual revenue.
This produces economic incentives for profit-driven privately-owned arms exporters in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom.
For some of their politicians, the international arms trade is a source of employment and international influence.
In several cases, historical and diplomatic links explain the relationship between arms exporters and arms importers.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union sold or donated weapons to countries such as Vietnam and India. Because of the complexity of these weapons systems, such as aircraft, Russia continues to sell weapons to these same countries and services the previously supplied equipment.
The United States’ biggest markets abroad are all long-time partners with cooperative relationships going back decades.
Selling or donating weapons is also a way to develop friendly relations, especially with states experiencing unrest or violence.
Civil wars or jihadi insurgencies have led several African countries, such as the Central African Republic and Mali, to look to Russia for weapons and military support.
Similarly, providing countries with alternative sources of arms can also help foster ties.
US sanctions on Iran, for example, prevent American weapons manufacturers from exporting to the country. Meanwhile, the Russian government has been able to further strengthen its relationship with Iran by continuing to supply arms.
Similarly, Western sanctions on Russia have led it to purchase drones from Iran.
The same is true for Venezuela, which relies heavily on Russia and increasingly so on China, as a result of US-led sanctions and arms embargo.
Depending on the complexity of the weapons systems, especially aircraft and missiles that can be used for decades and that require continued maintenance services, arms exports can create long-term relations that are difficult or expensive to end.
As more countries are able to manufacture at home, some are increasingly importing only components (like engines) or producing the equipment domestically after buying a license.
Importing weapons is also a way to influence arms-producing governments.
Wealthy but militarily vulnerable countries such as Saudi Arabia, which rely significantly on the United States for their security, spend billions of dollars on weapons purchases from the US and its allies.
This has made Western arms manufacturers reliant on such buyers while politicians tend to be more supportive of countries that buy their weapons.
A central focus for NATO is “interoperability” — the ability to deploy armed forces together.
As a result, NATO expects member states to use similar weapons. This has meant that many countries in Central and Eastern Europe have had to replace their Soviet-made weapons with Western-produced ones.
European military support to Ukraine — mostly in the form of weapons donations — has led to growing demand for new weapons.
By giving Ukraine its older weapons, European countries are able to fill their arsenals with newer and more advanced ones.
Limited industrial output in Europe has led European governments to look further for weapons, such as in South Korea, as well as to invest more domestically.
Author Naman Habtom
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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Some resources and further reading:
Defence spending and arms trade (Statista)
International arms transfers (SIPRI)
Meet the world’s new arms dealers (The Economist)
South Korea’s growing role as arms exporter (War on the Rocks)
How dominant is China in global arms trade? (CSIS)