Multipolarity, explained
May 11, 2025
The US' global dominance is declining.
Power is shifting towards multiple states.
The world enters 'unbalanced multipolarity'.
What is multipolarity?
The United States is losing its status as the only major power in the world.
By some measures, the Chinese economy is already larger than the American.
In 2024, China produced 32% of global manufacturing output, while the US accounted for 16%.
China also increasingly rivals the US in a range of modern technologies, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence.
China now has an advanced deep-water navy and a fleet of modern fighter jets.
BRICS, a China-led economic and political bloc, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others, is expanding.
In 2025, Indonesia (7th largest economy by purchasing power) joined Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and UAE as newer members of BRICS.
Most commentators agree that the system of US global dominance is in decline or has already fallen. However, there is no agreement on what kind of system is appearing.
Polarity is the distribution of power in international relations. This idea suggests that major powers act as “poles”, attracting resources and producing influence.
In this report, we look at multipolarity and what it could it mean for the world.
How can we measure polarity?
Unipolarity means that just one major power dominates the world order, with smaller states focusing on their alliances with the superpower.
The only true example of unipolarity is the United States-led order from the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 until recent years.
However, a local unipolarity was achieved by the Roman Empire in antiquity, or the Mongols in the Middle Ages.
Academics have tried measuring polarity with various statistics and indicators. By these measures, one country holding over 50% of global “power” means unipolarity.
However, military and political power is too complex to measure purely with data:
Diplomacy: political influence and leverage can be hard to measure or hidden.
Technology: the true capabilities of a military are often secret or unclear.
Demographics: populations vary widely by their skill level, education, training, ideologies and other factors.
Flexibility: countries make different decisions on how much army they maintain and how quickly it can be increased.
Therefore, assessing the world system involves analysing multiple indicators and making a subjective judgement.
In 1993, the US and its allies (G7) accounted for over 50% of global economic product.
By 2025, they produced around a third of global GDP (measured by purchasing power).
Meanwhile, BRICS+ nations have caught up with G7 members on GDP and now surpassed them with the addition of Indonesia in 2025.
In an effort to push against the US-led world order, BRICS nations have grown alternative institutions to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and others.
These organisations help the US exert political influence through lending and development programs.
Another important measure of “power” is military strength:
The US is by far the largest spender on its military, with a budget of almost $1 trillion, around 3 times larger than China’s.
However, it is unclear if the official figures for the Chinese defence budget are accurate.
Also, the doctrine of Military-Civil Fusion means that Chinese businesses and industries must support the country’s national security when asked.
China’s advancements in fighter jets, submarines, aircraft carriers, drones and other military tech make it harder to judge its true capabilities.
Russia’s failure to invade Ukraine in 2022 has shown that common measures of military strength are not a reliable predictors of conflict outcomes.
At the same time, Russia’s success at surviving the first years of sanctions showed that the US does no longer hold enough economic and political influence to control the global order.
If the United States is losing its role of a sole superpower, is the world entering bipolarity?
China is the only country that rivals US military power in the Indo-Pacific, and is the only one that is close to rivalling it globally.
In 2025, Pakistan successfully used older generation Chinese fighter jets to shoot down Indian aircraft, showing the growing global influence of Chinese arms.
The growth and consolidation of BRICS with its alternative global institutions is also creating a bipolar structure.
However, China is not economically isolated from the rest of the world, as the Soviet Union was, and the ideological rivalry is less intense.
This means that smaller states are not forced to choose one side.
Data shows that power, especially as measured by economic indicators, is shifting towards many “middle powers”, not only China.
The European Union is increasingly becoming an independent power:
Since 1945, the US was the guarantor of security for Western Europe. This began to change, especially as the Trump administration in the US wants to move away from this responsibility.
The resulting system could be described as ‘unbalanced multipolarity’ where multiple major powers determine the world order, with a few still being clearly ahead.
What is characteristic of multipolar times?
Little can be said on whether multipolarity creates stability or conflict.
There is some evidence that unipolarity creates the most stability, as there is little opportunity for global conflict, and local conflicts can be stopped by the superpower.
However, any analysis of bipolar or multipolar systems is affected by other factors specific to their time.
In multipolarity, the alliances between major powers are highly important:
Adding an extra major power to a coalition of states is more influential than any change than can be made within one country in the short-term.
Where is the world going?
Key players
United States: President Trump’s administration is looking to reduce its responsibilities abroad, contributing to the decline of US-led international order. The US is likely to continue seeing China as a major rival.
China: diplomatically, China is the biggest supporter of a multipolar world order. It has successfully joined the Global South under its leadership, but it is unclear if it wants to potentially set up a bipolar or a unipolar system in the long-term.
Russia: its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been the most disruptive event to the unipolar system in recent years, escalating tensions between US’ and China’s allies. However, its own share of global economic output has fallen further since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
European Union: shaken by internal divisions, Brexit and the weakening US support over the war in Ukraine, the EU is facing an uncertain future while remaining a major power.
India: another country that is both a critic of the current US-led world order and ambitious for a superpower status, while currently more aligned with the US than China.
What future scenarios are possible?
The unipolar system survives: there is little doubt about the weakening of the US position as global hegemon. However, it is imaginable that the US can further its military and economic advantages with strategic policies and technological advancements. China’s demographic slowdown could also help the US keep its dominance.
The world enters bipolar order: as China’s power rises quickly across many areas, it is possible that the world order of the coming decades is going to be defined by a rivalry between China and the US, with smaller states choosing sides.
The world enters multipolarity: especially when economic, social and cultural factors are considered, many capable and independent powers appear globally, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Turkey or the EU. A multipolar world could later transition into a bipolar or unipolar order.
Author Anton Kutuzov
You can help us secure our long-term future!
Please consider sending us a regular donation.
Find out more:
Sources and Further Reading
‘Yes, the World is Multipolar’ (Foreign Policy)
‘Munich Security Report 2025’ (Munich Security Conference)
Assessment of Multipolarity (Stimson Center)
Multipolarity Myth (Foreign Affairs)