Geopolitics of Fresh Water
August 10, 2025
Fresh water is a critical resource for human survival and is expected to be increasingly competed over in coming decades.
Climate change, population growth and agricultural needs are making water more scarce (insufficient).
Access to fresh water has geopolitical significance:
It is used as a tool to pressure nations or groups of people.
It could be a cause for mass migration.
Governments try to achieve self-sufficiency in fresh water.
While water covers 70% of the planet’s surface, only 3% of it is fresh water, making it highly sought after.
Fresh water normally means “not salty”, but there is no certain definition.
Water as a Geopolitical Tool
Governments are using control of rivers to exert their influence or pressure rivals.
Through the construction of dams, states are able to increase or limit downstream flows, including to neighbouring countries.
Hydroelectric dams can replace fossil fuel-produced energy and help meet growing energy needs, especially in developing countries.
However, the impact of a dam downstream depends on its design.
Turkey, Iraq and Syria
The Tigris and Euphrates rivers both originate in Turkey and traverse Iraq and Syria. All three countries have experienced acute water shortages as well as growing needs.
Turkey has at times reduced water flows in order to increase the amount of water it gets for itself as well as to pressure its neighbours.
India and Pakistan
In 1960, India and Pakistan signed the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates how much water each country receives.
The treaty has survived several wars between the two neighbours. However, during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, India suspended its participation.
If India builds additional dams and begins to store more water, Pakistan would be negatively impacted.
Around 80% of Pakistan’s arid (dry) land is irrigated by the Indus Basin while roughly two thirds of the population rely on agriculture for their livelihood.
The Indus starts in China-controlled Tibet, briefly flows through India and then through most of Pakistan.
China has a medium-sized dam on the Indus that it can use to affect the flow of the Indus but it has not actively weaponised it so far.
In July 2025, China began constructing what will be the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on another river in Tibet that could have an effect on India and Bangladesh.
Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt
In order to meet its growing energy needs, Ethiopia has built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which is the source for more than 80% of the Nile’s water.
The dam is Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant and is considered a source of pride for Ethiopia.
Egypt and Sudan, however, both view the dam as a danger. Both want binding agreements about water flows.
Egypt has since become closer to Eritrea and Somalia, two of Ethiopia’s neighbours with whom it has poor and often hostile relations.
Cities are growing and so are water needs.
Before 2007, the majority of the world’s population lived in rural areas. In 2023, 57% lived in cities(urban areas).
Metropolis (or an agglomeration) is a very large urban area that normally consists of a number of merged cities or towns.
Some of the world’s biggest cities have seen their populations grow by millions over the course of a single human lifespan.
The population growth has created strains for these cities: the infrastructure is becoming outdated and unable to sustain their inhabitants.
This had led to some metropolises nearing a so-called Day Zero, in which a city runs out of water.
Cape Town, South Africa was the first metropolis to almost hit a Day Zero in 2018.
With water consumption peaking in 2014 at 1.2 billion litres per day, the city managed to cut consumption by half.
It took several drastic actions, including:
Restricted personal water use
Increased utility prices
Installed water-management devices on high-volume consumers’ properties
Built wastewater-to-drinking-water filtration systems
Cut non-native trees in order to save more rainwater
Such measures can reduce water shortages but have their own costs.
Poor inhabitants are disproportionately impacted by price hikes, which can lead to urban unrest.
Protests over water shortages have broken out in places like Mexico City and Tehran.
Some governments have turned to privatisation of water services as a possible solution.
However, privately-owned water companies have not necessarily been able to address these problems and at times worsened them.
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Agriculture
Food production is not only about having enough soil but also enough water.
Water can be exported either directly or indirectly, most notably through water-intensive foods.
Rather than relying on local food production, countries with low access to freshwater can effectively import it through importing most of their foods.
Virtual water refers to the water used in the process of creating something.
As water becomes more scarce, countries may become more protective of their virtual water.
For example, Israel has restricted the export of its Jaffa oranges as a result of a strengthening currency making exports less competitive as well as a 75% fall in citrus production since its peak in the 1980s.
The climate crisis is making access to clean water an increasingly urgent problem worldwide.
Global temperature rises are not only changing the climate but also making it more unpredictable.
This means both droughts and floods are becoming more frequent.
Melting glaciers and changes in rainfall levels will reduce or shift the periods of the year when water reservoirs can be filled.
Declining rainfalls and riverflows impact farmers, leading to a greater need for food imports as well as rural-to-urban migration.
Low rainfall in the Middle East in 2020-2021 led to the flows in the Tigris and Euphrates falling by 29% and 73%, respectively.
As a result, the nations of the region have increasingly imported grain from abroad while local farmers are unable to maintain their livelihood.
This type of migration can also lead to social unrest.
Technological development is increasing water demand.
Internet-based services rely on data centres (server facilities) around the world, which are normally cooled using water.
Growing demand for AI will create greater competition for scarce water resources.
Innovation can help alleviate some but not necessarily all of these challenges.
One proposed solution is desalination, which is the process of removing salt and other minerals from seawater to make it drinkable.
However, this is an expensive process as it requires a lot of energy (electricity).
Nuclear power plants, which generate a lot of heat and electricity, can be used to power desalination.
However, concerns about safety risks, construction and operating costs, as well as scalability have prevented this from becoming a widespread method.
Still, nuclear desalination is being explored for wider use as a low-emission method of producing both energy and drinking water.
Recycling water is another method of reducing water shortages.
The process consists of (1) collecting used water, such as from sewage, and then (2) removing waste and (3) purifying it so that it can be safely consumed again.
Scientists have also been developing drought-resistant crops that can withstand higher temperatures and rely on less water.
Efficient water use, such as through drip irrigation, is increasingly being adopted as rainfall becomes more unpredictable and water reservoirs shrink.
Author Naman Habton, PhD
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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Further reading and sources
How Cape Town saved itself from Day Zero (SIWI)
Explained: Generative AI’s environmental impact (MIT)
Nuclear Desalination (IAEA)
Recycled Water for Drinking (CDC)
Water Politics in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin (Arab Center DC)
Indus Waters Treaty (NPR)
What is the difference between water use and water consumption (WRI)
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