ARAB SPRING, REVISITED

WHAT DID THE PROTESTS BRING, 14 YEARS SINCE?

November 17, 2024

The Arab Spring was a wave of protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions that spread across the Arab world in 2010-12.

The protests were similar and generally asked for:

  • Democracy

  • Employment

  • Free elections

  • Rule of law

  • Fighting poverty

  • Reforms

“The people want to bring down the regime”
- A major slogan of the protests in Arabic

The unrest began in Tunisia in December 2010, when a 26-year-old street vendor set himself on fire after being harassed by local officials. He died 3 weeks later.

His act of desperation resonated with millions across the region who were frustrated with (1) long-standing authoritarian rulers and (2) poor economic conditions.

Political repression: pressure of activists, journalists and politicians. Lack of a free election process.
Human rights abuses: Crimes such as torture and illegal executions were committed by multiple regimes in the region.
Authoritarianism: Leaders unchanged for over 20 years in Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and others.
Unemployment: job opportunities were lacking for a long period, especially for younger adults.
Financial crisis of 2008-09: this further damaged the weak economies of the region, worsening the standards of living and increasing dissatisfaction.

After the initial success in Tunisia, protests spread to Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen. 

By 2011, there were 23 million internet users in the Middle East, up from 1 million in 2001.

Once the uprisings had begun, newly present social media played a role in helping protesters to mobilise and communicate. 

Generally, the Arab Spring failed to bring about a shift towards democracy in the Arab world.

Tunisia was the only country that achieved a lasting democratic regime. However, after a peaceful transition of power of 2019, the new president has again centralised his rule.

In Egypt, Libya and Yemen, as well as Tunisia, long-lasting authoritarian rulers were overthrown. However, Libya and Yemen remain in a state of civil war, while Egypt returned to a military-backed authoritarian regime.

In Syria, protests also grew into a civil war. Dictator Bashar al-Assad is still holding on to power against multiple factions, with direct support from Russia and Iran.

Syrian Civil War alone caused 12.1 million people to flee the country. In Europe, this has triggered a refugee crisis.

Combined with United States’ military withdrawal from Iraq, the war in Syria created a lack of governance that allowed the rise of ISIS in 2012-15.

In most countries, such as in Bahrain, the governments reacted to the mass protest with violent force and some political concessions.

This allowed authoritarian regimes to generally persist or even gain power after 2012, bringing what is sometimes called the Arab Winter.

Tunisia: a transition to democracy was achieved.

Specific reasons for that include (1) lack of a strong military which could have taken over the power at various moments, and (2) lack of an oil exporting economy, which would have helped any regime keep power with stable income in dollars.

A progressive constitution was adopted in 2014 and working institutions were established after years of transition. Agreeing on any laws was long and difficult.

However, economic improvements did not follow, as unemployment remained high and incomes relatively low, creating dissatisfaction with democracy.

In 2019, a peaceful transition of power took place. However, the new president, Kais Saied, took centralised rule with emergency powers in 2021.

In October 2024, Saied secured reelection with over 90% of votes on less than 30% turnout, having jailed his main opponent.

Libya: protests grew into an armed rebellion.

After a violent crackdown from the government, a NATO-led intervention supported the rebels.

Dictator Muammar Gaddafi who ruled for 42 years and established an oil-fuelled authoritarian regime, was killed by the rebel soldiers in 2011.

In 2014, full-scale civil war broke out.

Libya remains split between two rival governments and in a state of slow-burning civil conflict.

Syria: protests escalated into a civil war.

The civil war has now grown into a complex international conflict involving the US, Russia, Turkey and Iran, as well as many other factions, many at war with each other and the Islamic State.

In 2015, direct military intervention from Russia helped to support the government’s control over most of the country.

Currently, most of the conflict takes place between Turkey and separate factions within Syria, especially those belonging to the Kurdish minority.

Egypt: authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak resigned after mass protests.

An Islamist party, Muslim Brotherhood, is elected to power, attempting to align the country closer with Islamic law.

However, in 2014 it was overthrown by a military coup after failing to secure wide support.

A military-backed authoritarian regime was restored and political repressions intensified.

Yemen: an authoritarian ruler fled the country.

His successor, also backed by the military, has struggled to maintain popular support and was overthrown by an Islamist movement of the Houthis in 2014.
The Houthis still control most of Yemen, fighting off a military intervention from Saudi Arabia since 2015.

In recent years, Houthis have been particularly influential in disrupting global shipping lanes in the Suez Canal between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as launching missile strikes on Israel.

Bahrain: protesters met a violent crackdown by the security forces.

One month into the protests, the King announced the state of emergency and repressed any dissent with many arrested and some dead.

Saudi Arabia sent its military forces to support Bahrain’s crackdown on the protests.

Along with some political and economic concessions, this was sufficient to keep the current regime in power. Political repressions intensified after 2012.

Overall, the Arab Spring did not bring about a significant political change in the Arab world.

However, the underlying reasons for the widespread unrest remain – both economic struggles and authoritarianism.

The effects were country specific. Some states, like Morocco, waited through the protests without significant reaction, while others suppressed the unrest successfully.

In Syria, Libya and Yemen, the Arab Spring protests eventually escalated into civil wars, destroying local economies and communities.

This has provided an opportunity for radical Islamist movements to grow in the region, most notably ISIS.

The years following the Arab Spring saw a reversal of trend and a strengthening of authoritarianism in the region, as well as increased Shia-Sunni and secular-Islamist tensions.

2018-19 saw another, smaller, wave of anti-government protests in the Middle East. This included most notably a coup in Sudan, which brought a government committed to a democratic transition that was itself overthrown in 2021.

In Tunisia, the only country that achieved a lasting democratic system, most gains have been reverted by president Kais Saied using emergency powers in 2021 to seize centralised authority.

In October 2024, Saied secured reelection, continuing to erode Tunisian short-lived democratic institutions.  

Author William Nott

Editor Anton Kutuzov

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