Geopolitics of
FIGHTER JETS
August 18, 2024
For the busiest:
Strong airforce and access to the most advanced planes is a highly influential political factor, providing security and regional influence.
Latest models are the fifth generation of fighter jets, with only four developed globally: American F-22 and F-35, Chinese J-20 and Russian Su-57.
Selling the F-35s allowed the US to decide which countries get to have a better fighter jet.
In 2014, a Chinese businessman was indicted in the US for involvement in hacking into technological secrets of F-22, F-35 and other aircraft, likely contributing to China’s airforce program.
Taiwan did not receive F-35 jets as the US ultimately decided against provoking China with this move.
US modernised 144 of Taiwan’s existing F-16 fighters to the latest modification F-16V, giving them many 5th generation capabilities.
Israel stands out as a dominant fighter jet power in the Middle East being the only country in possession of F-35.
US removed Turkey from the F-35 program despite it producing parts of the aircraft as a partner nation. This came as a result of Turkey buying S-400 air defense systems from Russia.
Two prototypes of the latest US 6th generation fighter were flown by 2023.
Modern fighter jets have extremely advanced capabilities - those include striking targets from beyond the visible range undetected by radars.
In a conflict scenario, a stronger airforce can establish air-superiority – control over the skies, suppressing enemy planes and supporting own ground troops.
This makes fighter jets particularly influential military equipment, constantly competing with air-defense and detection systems.
Strong airforce and access to the most advanced planes is a highly influential political factor, providing security and regional influence.
The US has by far the largest airforce globally.
It has the strongest fighter jet fleet but also the largest number of combat aircraft, indicating its ability to carry out a range of operations apart from establishing air-superiority.
Vast aircraft carrier fleet allows the US to use its planes across the planet.
China is the closest competitor to the US in fighter jets, while Russia has the world’s second largest airforce overall.
Two pairs of major adversaries – India and Pakistan, as well as North and South Korea complete the top-7.
Latest models are the fifth generation of fighter jets, with only four developed globally: American F-22 and F-35, Chinese J-20 and Russian Su-57.
The F-22 Raptor was created in the late 1990s and remains the most agile and stealthy jet in service. It was never exported outside the US or used in wars.
The F-35 Lightning II is less stealthy and quick than the F-22, but has more advanced capabilities and avionics, making it a strong multi-purpose fighter.
F-35 was developed in cooperation with international partners and designed as an export model.
Selling the F-35s allowed the US to decide which countries get to have a better fighter jet, without sharing the F-22 which is superior to F-35 in a 1-on-1 dogfight.
A crucial advantage is supercruise – ability to maintain super-sonic speed without using inefficient afterburner engines.
F-35 is not capable of supercruise, while Russian Su-57 reportedly is but at a speed of 1.3 Mach, compared to F-22’s 1.8 Mach.
J-20’s ability to supercruise is debated. While some experts doubt this possibility, the Chinese military publicised in 2024 that the plane can “easily reach supercruise”.
Overal, little is known about the specifications of J-20 and its stealth properties.
Similarly, Russian Su-57 is claimed to rival F-22 in stealth capabilities, however its radar cross-section, a crucial measure of detectability, is 0.5 square meters, 5 times larger than F-22.
Neither J-20 nor F-22 were used in combat. Su-57 reportedly saw limited use in Syria and Ukraine with little evidence of combat involvement available.
F-35 was first used in combat by Israeli Airforce in 2018, striking Iranian and Islamic State targets in Syria, Sudan and Egyptian Sinai.
They were also used by the US Marines against Taliban targets in Afghanistan and by the US Airforce against the Islamic State in Iraq.
F-35s were delivered to at least 10 countries, including South Korea, Japan and Australia, while at least 7 others await their orders.
In 2014, a Chinese businessman was indicted in the US for involvement in hacking into technological secrets of F-22, F-35 and other aircraft, likely contributing to China’s airforce program.
J-20 was never exported outside of China since its introduction in 2017.
Russia was reportedly considering Su-57 sales to Iran, but there is no evidence the deal was completed and production capacity for Su-57 remains low.
In 2024, Ukraine has received modernised F-16AM/BM models from Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Belgium.
Ukraine will eventually receive up to 60-65 such jets, but currently only has a few aircraft and trained pilots.
To show how fighter jets contribute to geopolitical balance of power we consider some specific regions.
East Asia is an area of extremely high tension as China is preparing its military to potentially invade Taiwan by 2027.
As China rolls out 5th generation fighters and expands its airforce, the US looked to empower its allies in the region.
Japan and South Korea received over 60 F-35A jets, already having strong fleets of hundreds of F-15 and F-16 planes of advanced models.
Taiwan did not receive F-35 jets as the US ultimately decided against provoking China with this move.
However, the US modernised 144 of Taiwan’s existing F-16 fighters to the latest modification F-16V, giving them many 5th generation capabilities. Further 66 such jets were ordered in 2019.
Both F-16 and F-35 aircraft are capable of being reconfigured and upgraded, allowing them to remain in service for decades without losing dominance.
Taiwan also has a strong domestic jet program with its 4th generation flagship F-CK-1.
North Korea has a large fighter jet fleet, but it consists of outdated aircraft and focuses on intercepting capabilities.
Israel stands out as a dominant fighter jet power in the Middle East being the only country in possession of F-35.
Israeli Airforce uses special variant F-35I “Adir” and has uniquely close access to modifying the F-35 for its needs.
F-35I is employed by Israel in the bombardment of the Gaza strip.
In October 2023, Israeli airforce scored the first shoot-down of a missile by F-35 globally, downing a Houthi cruise missile launched toward Israel from Yemen.
US removed Turkey from the F-35 program despite it producing parts of the aircraft as a partner nation. This came as a result of Turkey buying S-400 air defense systems from Russia, which could have compromised F-35 stealth capabilities and NATO air defense security.
Turkey did not end up using the purchased S-400 systems. It is looking to sell them to a third country that uses Russian equipment (like Pakistan) and potentially rejoin the F-35 program with US approval.
Turkey filed an official request in 2021 to purchase 40 of the latest F-16V variant and 80 kits to modernise their F-16s up to it.
In 2024, US finally granted this request in return for Turkey approving Sweden’s entry into NATO, which it previously blocked.
Iran has a smaller airforce consisting of relatively good 4th generation fighters, like F-14 and MiG-29.
Iran has completed a deal for Russian Su-35 fighter jets, considered of 4th+ generation, with the first shipment expected soon.
Historically, the country prioritised ballistic missile capabilities over its fighter jets fleet.
Saudi Arabia has been a close security partner with the US since their early oil trade deals (see our Oil geopolitics report).
Special model of the F-15 is sold to Saudi Arabia, which is the latest strike variant. The country’s fleet is advanced and the 9th largest in the world.
Egypt is another major airforce in the Middle East, boasting a large fleet of mid-range F-16s.
Syrian Airforce has the 5th largest fighter jet fleet in the region, although many of their planes are outdated.
Russia has supported the Syrian government in maintaining their aircraft.
The 6th generation of fighter jets is expected to enter service in the 2030s.
Some major capabilities that are expected:
Optional human pilot, unmanned capabilities
Cyber warfare, advanced jamming systems
Advanced stealth and avionics
Use in a swarm of unmanned aircraft
Artificial Intelligence integration
Currently there are 6 active programs developing sixth generation fighters.
US is working on a cutting-edge air-superiority jet to replace the F-22, under the New Generation Air Dominance program.
Two prototypes of the latest US 6th generation fighter were flown by 2023.
Russian Mikoyan PAK DP program is expected to test fly a prototype by 2025.
Two European collaborative programs are both expected to test a flying prototype by 2027.UK, Japan and Italy collaborate on the GCAP project, while France, Germany and Spain are making a jet under the FCAS program.
Chinese company Chengdu has been developing a 6th generation fighter jet coming off the success of the J-20.
Latest fighter, not yet bearing any name, is expected to have a test flight in 2028.
India has announced its own 5th and 6th generation fighter jet development, after pulling out of Russian Su-57 program in 2018, citing concerns over engineering quality, costs and production capacity.
HAL AMCA, in its 5th generation variant, should have a test flight by 2028.
In 2024, Brazil announced it will be working on a 6th generation fighter jet program, ran by Embraer and based on technologies of Saab JAS 39, a Swedish 4th generation jet produced in Brazil.
Author Anton Kutuzov