Trade Chokepoints, explained
August 31, 2025
A chokepoint is a narrow or isolated waterway where cargo shipping is concentrated (often a canal or a strait).
This could be the shipping of goods in general (container traffic) or crucial resources like crude oil.
The concentration of traffic in these chokepoints makes them targets for political manipulation, economic weaponisation and military power projection.
Over 80% of global trade in goods is shipped by sea.
Panama Canal
Location: connects the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans.
Importance: handles 5% of global sea trade and 40% of US container traffic; a key route for US-Asia shipping.
Since 2017, China has been increasing its presence around the Panama Canal by investing in infrastructure and ports in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative. 2 of 5 major ports in Panama are Chinese-owned.
In 2025, President Trump claimed he will make a push to “take back” control over the Panama Canal.
The US firm BlackRock wants to buy operating rights for 43 international ports, including 2 in Panama, from a Hong Kong-based company. The deal is delayed to 2026.
In February 2025, Panama announced leaving China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Climate: In 2023-2024, a record drought in Panama led to restrictions on ship traffic, affecting US-Asia and Europe-Latin America trade. The Canal Authority started plans for a new reservoir and water-saving systems to limit future droughts.
The Strait of Hormuz
Location: a narrow passage on the way out of the Persian Gulf.
Importance: the only route for the oil exporters in the Persian Gulf (over 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquid petroleum shipments).
Since the 1980s, Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait but never fully blocked it.
In 2025, Iran made the threat again after the US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites.
In 2019, Iran sabotaged an oil tanker and used GPS jamming in the strait amid tensions with the US over Iran’s nuclear program.
In 2025, China, Iran and Russia carried out a joint naval exercise close to the Strait of Hormuz (for the 5th time).
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Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab Strait
Location: connect the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Importance: the shortest sea route between Europe and Asia, handling more than 30% of world container traffic and 10% of global maritime trade.
The Suez Canal is an artificial waterway that has been central to world trade for more than 150 years.
In 2015, Egypt built a second Suez Canal passage, enabling two-way traffic and doubling capacity.
Since the 2010s, Saudi Arabia and China have actively invested in the canal’s infrastructure.
In 2023/24 the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were Egypt’s top foreign investor at 80% of the total, while Saudi Arabia and China invested around 1% each.
In 2021, the Ever Given container ship blocked the Suez Canal for 6 days after running aground causing disruptions to global trade. The Canal Authority lost $100M.
Since 2023, Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked over 100 commercial vessels with drones and missiles along the Bab al-Mandeb/Suez route.
This crisis motivated shipping between Europe and Asia to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, causing delays and increased costs.
This cut Red Sea traffic by over 60% by December 2024, compared to pre-crisis averages.
Djibouti, a small country near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, hosts strategic military bases from the US, the UK, China, Italy, France, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Spain and Saudi Arabia.
The Turkish Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles)
Location: connect the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea.
Importance: the only sea export route for Caspian oil (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), Ukrainian grain and other resources; double the traffic of the Suez.
Türkiye controls both the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Türkiye closed the straits to warships from all countries.
In 2022, Türkiye helped broker the Black Sea deal which guaranteed security for restoring grain supplies from Ukraine close to pre-invasion levels.
Russia left the deal in July 2023, so Ukraine had to shift to a coastal sea corridor near Romania to secure its exports and reach the Bosphorus.
In 2024, Türkiye formed a joint task force with Romania and Bulgaria to protect Europe-Asia trade routes, while keeping a NATO-Russia “balanced neutrality”.
The Strait of Malacca
Location: connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean.
Importance: the shortest shipping route between East Asia and the Indian Ocean, handling around 30% of global trade and over 70% of China’s oil imports.
China’s “Malacca Dilemma”: a risk of blockade pushes China to build land routes and to secure full control over the Taiwan Strait.
China has built artificial islands and militarised disputed areas in the South China Sea, challenging international maritime rules for exclusive economic zones (EEZ).
In response, the US has increased its naval presence in the Pacific, conducted joint exercises with its allies in the region, and supplied anti-ship missiles to Australia, Japan and Taiwan.
From 1995-2013, 41% of pirate attacks globally happened in Southeast Asia, mainly around the Strait of Malacca.
The English Channel
Location: a passage between the UK and France linking the North Sea with the Atlantic Ocean.
Importance: the busiest shipping route in the world by number of ships and the main trade route between the UK and continental Europe.
Post-Brexit, tensions between France and the UK rose over border control and migrant crossings.
In 2019-2024, over 150,000 people crossed in small boats from France to the UK.
In July 2025, France and the UK agreed on a "one in, one out" deal to discourage boat crossings: France will take back boat migrants who do not prove family ties in the UK while the UK will accept an equal number from France.
Alternative routes and future chokepoints at risk
Climate change is making the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic more navigable. The NSR provides a 40% shorter distance between Northeast Asia and Europe, compared to the Suez Canal.
China already uses the NSR in warmer months to import Russian gas. China and Russia agreed in 2023 to boost navigability in colder months with a large fleet of nuclear icebreakers.
Since the 1960s, Israel has proposed an alternative to the Suez: a canal parallel to the Suez through Israel. The project was reconfirmed in 2021 but high costs, security and construction challenges have delayed it.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor(IMEC) project, agreed in 2023, links maritime and rail networks and is expected to make the transit time 10 days quicker compared to the Suez route.
By 2030, the Malacca Strait is projected to face overcapacity and alternatives remain limited.
A project for an artificial canal through Thailand aims to become a 1,000 miles shorter alternative to the Malacca Strait. This was first proposed in the 17th century.
The project was revived in 2015 under the Belt and Road Initiative but stalled over cost and political challenges.
In 2023, Thailand shifted to a $28 billion land bridge project and is now seeking investors.
At least 5 project for an alternative to the Panama Canal exist: from Nicaragua’s water canal to land routes in Guatemala, Costa Rica and El Salvador. Mexico’s project offers the shortest land link between the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico.
Türkiye formally announced an alternative to the Bosphorus in 2021. It was reconfirmed in 2025 that construction will begin once timing and resources allow, despite environmental concerns.
Author Ostap Salovskyi
Editor Anton Kutuzov
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