Oil and economy

Venezuela has been in deep economic crisis for over 10 years, with extreme poverty and high inflation.

The government has been printing more and more money to fund its spending as the once-strong oil industry declined under sanctions and poor management.

Venezuela holds one of the world's largest foreign debts at around 200% of its GDP (over $150 billion).

After the intervention, Venezuela agreed that all revenue from its oil exports would be deposited in the US first and used only with US approval.

So far, sale of around $5 billion worth of oil was planned, and over $500 million was already sent to Venezuela to keep the government operating under US oversight.

However, there is little public information about this arrangement, including how much oil was sold, at what price, how much money was sent to Venezuela and how it was spent.

The US controls who is allowed to buy the oil, with the main buyers now being Indian and US oil refineries.

Oil ‘privatisation’: a new law has allowed companies other than the state-owned oil giant to enter the oil market independently.

Oil exports reached 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a 7-year high.

Reaching 3 million barrels per day would need around $183 billion of investment, more than double the Venezuelan GDP.

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Politics and democracy

Maduro's deputy re-shuffled the cabinet in March 2026, but most ministers are long-time government insiders.

• The new defence minister is a former head of the intelligence service who previously oversaw violent crackdowns on opposition.

No election date has been set as of June 2026.

The opposition estimates that updating the electoral system would take 9-10 months.

This includes updating the list of voters, which excludes about 8 million emigrants who left during the crisis.

A controversial amnesty law passed in February 2026 which allowed some political prisoners to be released; however, it excluded some high-profile cases and anyone who encouraged foreign intervention.

Around 389 political prisoners are still held by Venezuela in June 2026.

Venezuela recorded around 600 protests in both January and February 2026, as the repression of the past year has been eased under US demands.

February youth marches were broadcast on national television for the first time in years.

The opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, plans to return to Venezuela by the end of 2026.

The 2024 election remains disputed, with the opposition's count showing its candidate winning with 67%.

In June 2026 a US strike inside Venezuela killed the leader of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan international gang listed by the US as a foreign terrorist group since 2025.

• The US frames its intervention as anti-drug action, claiming that Maduro led a cartel that backed the gang, a claim Venezuela denies.

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Cuban Crisis 2026

Cuba has been a one-party socialist state since 1961, which has been an ideological enemy of the US through the Cold War and since.

For the last 20-30 years, Venezuela has been the main supplier of oil to Cuba.

From late January 2026 the US blocked oil tankers bound for Cuba, cutting supply.

Cuban food output fell about 60%, and medicines dropped to around 30% of normal supply.

3 Things to Look Out For:

• The election: Venezuelans await a date for a potential presidential election. The constitution requires a vote within 30 days of the post becoming vacant, but it was officially ruled that Maduro is only temporarily absent.

• Cuba: with oil supply in US hands, Cuba has already implemented some of the most free-market economic reforms since the 1961 revolution. The US issued a criminal accusation against some Cuban officials, including Raul Castro, and may be looking to replace the current president.

• Guyana: a Venezuelan neighbour with large under-developed oil reserves has been a potential target for an invasion or annexation by Maduro’s regime.