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Oil news

Crude oil prices fell by around 10% on news of diplomatic progress in Iran and the Democratic Party’s win in the US midterms.

Conflict Hot Warm Frozen Potential Circle size = estimated deaths (log scale).

Events from around the world that have a real, lasting impact.

Post factum Pro subscribers can see all earlier events and the archive of Pf News.

Iran War

October has been the war’s worst month for attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, with 30 incidents reported.

An oil spill from a damaged tanker reached the UAE coast on 23 October, and 3 emirates closed their beaches.

Ukraine War

Ukraine ended a 15-day pause in strikes on Russian oil refineries on 30 October, hitting a refinery in the Samara region.

The “energy ceasefire” announced by Donald Trump did not hold, as Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine’s electricity grid ahead of winter.

The UK Autumn Budget was announced on 28 October, defined by the growing cost of borrowing, with minor tax and welfare measures.

The budget included $3.5 billion of £100 ($134) cash payments to households in council tax bands A–D in England, and a higher tax on banks for 15 months.

The Democratic Party won majority control of both chambers of the US parliament (Congress) in the midterm elections on 3 November.

Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932, Texas its first since 1988, and Michigan the first ever Muslim senator.

China

China confirmed the expulsion of 33 high-level officials, including most of its top military commanders, in its largest political purge in decades.

The next Communist Party Congress was set for late 2027, giving Xi Jinping an opportunity to secure a 4th 5-year term as general secretary.

France

On 17 October, 550,000 people across France protested against the state of the education system and the rising cost of living; 2,400 were detained.

Over 1,000 police officers were injured, and over 2,500 shops were damaged or looted during the protests.

Germany

In the Saxony-Anhalt state, the AfD party joined votes with the left-wing populist BSW to pass a motion calling for ending military aid to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia.

It also called for an “immediate ceasefire” and a start to peace negotiations, while having no legal effect on the national policy.

India

Nationwide protests demanding the resignation of India’s Chief Election Commissioner led to about 700 detentions in Delhi on 2 October and the detention of some opposition MPs on 6–7 October.

The Gen Z-led Cockroach Janta Party (behind this year’s students’ protests) was the main organiser of the marches.

Japan

Japan’s defence minister met his counterparts from the US, Australia and the Philippines during the ASEAN summit on 28–29 October.

The Philippines agreed to buy a retired Japanese ship, and Australia confirmed progress on a warship co-developed with Japan.

Turkiye

Turkiye’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee approved the mutual defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan, with a parliamentary vote on formal ratification to follow.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have completed the ratification process.

Africa

Fighting continued between the Ethiopian army and rebel groups in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and other regions.

The Eritrean army kept control of some towns in Ethiopia along their shared border after earlier clashes, with no active fighting over the past 2 weeks.

Asia

Afghanistan’s opium poppy cultivation rose 325% in 2026, to around 20% of the level before the Taliban returned to power.

The increase was driven by farmers defying the narcotics ban amid worsening economic conditions.

Europe

Serbia’s student-backed list won the parliamentary elections on 25 October with 52% of the vote.

This ended the 14-year rule of Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned as president in September to run for prime minister; a presidential election is expected in December.

Middle East

In Israel’s general election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc did not win a majority (53 of 120 seats), with no clear winner.

The anti-Netanyahu centre-right opposition won 48 seats, and the Arab parties a record 19 seats, emerging as potential “kingmakers”.

South America

In Brazil, Lula was re-elected as president with 52% of the vote, the first candidate in Brazil to win a run-off after coming second in the first round.

The right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro rejected the results and announced he would seek to annul them, but his party recognised Lula’s win.

Rest of the World

Canada’s province of Alberta voted to remain part of Canada in a referendum on 19 October.

75% voted for the province to remain in Canada, and 25% voted to start a legal process towards a binding referendum on separation.

Technology

2 critical security flaws were found in PHP, the programming language behind about 70% of the world’s websites.

The flaws were disclosed when the fix was published, but every affected server must be updated; millions of hacking attempts followed globally.

Business

Hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the largest crypto exchange.

The hack was attributed to North Korea and is likely the largest cryptocurrency heist ever.

Climate

The El Niño effect over the tropical Pacific Ocean further intensified, predicted to be the strongest on record and to last until February 2027.

The El Niño increases global temperatures for about a year and changes where the rain falls, especially in the Americas and Pacific Asia.

Oil

Crude oil prices fell by around 10% on news of diplomatic progress in Iran and the Democratic Party’s win in the US midterms.

Brent crude traded around $95 per barrel by the end of 4 November.

Post factum Pro subscribers can see all earlier events and the archive of Pf News.