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Updated: 12 August 2026, 23:04 UTC
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Oil prices fluctuated at high levels as US-Iran negotiations produced mixed signals, with refining costs near record levels.
Conflict Hot Warm Frozen Potential Circle size = estimated deaths (log scale).
Iran War
Iran struck a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi refinery as negotiations with the US looked unlikely to produce a long-term deal soon.
No oil was loaded for export in Iran in August, and only humanitarian ships sailed into the Persian Gulf.
Ukraine War
Ukraine intercepted 2 out of 51 ballistic missiles fired at it by Russia in the first two attacks of August, as air defence interceptor stocks ran low.
Ukraine has so far failed to agree additional shipments of interceptor missiles for the US-made Patriot system.
UK
The next budget announcement was set for October 2026, as the government looks to find funding for already-made promises.
Around £5 billion out of the promised £15 billion rise in defence spending remains unfunded, as inflation was projected to remain above 3% until the 3rd quarter of 2027 due to the Iran War.
US
25 states started a legal appeal against the Trump administration’s new Section 301 tariffs that replaced the earlier tariff regime struck down by the Supreme Court.
The new tariffs cover over 99% of US imports, charging 12.5% on goods from countries that were deemed not to ban forced labour, and 10% on the rest.
China
China introduced 5 new trade restrictions against the US, including export controls on drones and drone components.
This came after the US introduced export controls against Chinese 4-legged robots and banned 43 more Chinese companies from selling to the US.
France
The French government, without a parliamentary majority, is struggling to reduce a deficit of over 5% and bring a debt-to-GDP ratio down from 110%.
The EU’s soft limit for a budget deficit is 3%.
Germany
Low water levels in the river Rhine put more strain on Germany’s industrial sector, as some factories along the river corridor slowed production.
The sector has also faced pressure from the loss of cheap Russian gas, competition from Chinese firms, US tariffs and the war in Iran.
India
India’s central bank held interest rates at 5.25% and raised its 2026–27 growth forecast to 6.7%.
India is looking to keep its economic growth at around 7% per year while importing 90% of its oil through the war-affected Red Sea, mostly from Russia.
Japan
The US and Japan coordinated to buy the Japanese currency yen, pushing its price up from a 40-year low.
The low currency value has increased inflation in Japan through the higher cost of imports, pressuring the central bank to raise interest rates despite growing debt.
Turkiye
A new party split away from the heavily pressured main opposition party (CHP), with 91 of its 135 parliament members joining.
The Turkish government continued its crackdown on the CHP with arrests and legal pressure, as it lost its status as the largest opposition party.
Africa
The latest outbreak of Ebola virus in DR Congo grew to 3,874 confirmed cases and 1,751 deaths (a mortality rate of 45%).
It became the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak in history, behind the 28,610 cases during the 2014–16 West African epidemic.
Asia
The South Korean Kospi stock market index, heavily influenced by microchips, is down 44% from the June peak.
Some investors grew concerned over a potential wider sell-off in AI-related stocks.
Europe
A heatwave is causing drought and wildfires in Europe.
Romania’s only nuclear power plant shut down due to low water in the Danube river; Spain and France were fighting record-level wildfires.
Middle East
The US-led Gaza Board of Peace and Hamas signed a multi-stage disarmament agreement, but Israel did not join.
Israeli strikes on Gaza intensified in August and killed at least 19 Palestinians, as the withdrawal has stalled.
South America
The US-Brazilian tariff dispute escalated as the US revoked the visa of the Brazilian ambassador.
The combined 37.5% tariff on over $35 billion of exports to the US has put pressure on the Brazilian economy and forced a delay in some planned reforms.
Rest of the World
Cuba’s energy and economic crisis deepened, as around half of the island has no electricity during peak demand.
The country’s GDP is expected to fall by over 6% this year, as the US continued its diplomatic pressure.
Technology
China reportedly started the production of DUV lithography machines, critical for high-end microchips.
Previously this technology was believed to be unique to the Netherlands-based firm ASML.
Business
China’s leading chipmaker became the most valuable company on the country’s stock exchange on the 1st day of trading.
Investors’ AI-related concerns grew as insurance against NVIDIA and Google failing on their debts became more expensive.
Climate
The El Niño weather effect intensified over the Pacific Ocean, expected to drive more hot weather this summer.
A record heatwave across Western Europe in late June killed more than 1,300 people.
Oil
Oil prices fluctuated at high levels as US-Iran negotiations produced mixed signals, with refining costs near record levels.
The margin between the costs of crude oil and oil products grew.
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