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Oil news

The Saudi pipeline that allowed some oil to bypass Hormuz has stayed shut since a Houthi strike on 10 September.

Conflict Hot Warm Frozen Potential Circle size = estimated deaths (log scale).

Events from around the world that have a real, lasting impact.

Pf Pro subscribers can view all previously logged events and the archive of Pf News reports.

Iran War

Iran attacked more commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a US base in Jordan; the US struck Iranian oil infrastructure and tankers.

Iran-backed Houthis captured land along the Bab el-Mandeb from the Saudi-backed government of Yemen.

Ukraine War

Ukraine continued drone and missile strikes on Russian oil refineries, causing record-high global prices for diesel and other oil products.

Around 25–50% of Russian refining capacity was taken offline by the Ukrainian campaign, with a successful hit every 3 days in 2026 so far on average.

The UK government declared the Israeli occupation of the West Bank unlawful and imposed sanctions on individuals and firms supporting the expansion of illegal settlements.

The sanctions were launched alongside Canada and France; the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and its settlements there are illegal under international law.

The central bank (Federal Reserve) voted 12–0 to raise the interest rate (cost of lending money) by 0.25%, the first increase since 2023, because of growing inflation.

The war in Iran and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining have contributed to rising global prices, with inflation of 3.7% predicted for 2026, above the 2% target.

China

Xi Jinping travelled to India for the first time since 2019 and the spike in China-India tensions in 2020, as part of a BRICS summit.

China opened a $10 billion river-to-sea waterway that cuts transport costs between south-west China and South East Asia by 18–30%.

France

The French government dropped its target for a 5% budget deficit this year, now aiming for 5.4%, while the state’s 10-year borrowing cost reached the highest level since 2008.

The government is looking to agree a budget for 2027 without a majority in parliament.

Germany

On 6 September, the nationalist AfD party won the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt (east Germany) and leads the national polls at 29%.

The governing centre-right CDU party was second in that same poll, at 18%, prompting it to schedule a series of leadership meetings for later this month.

India

The 18th summit of BRICS, hosted by India, issued a joint statement that was also signed by both Iran and the UAE, which are on opposite sides of the Iran War.

The statement called for a greater role for Brazil and India at the United Nations, greater use of national currencies in trade, and more.

Japan

The cost of government borrowing (bond yields) reached 3% per year on 10-year bonds, the highest since 1996, while the government increased its borrowing.

The growing inflation and weak currency applied pressure to increase interest rates, which would further raise yields.

Turkiye

A number of investment funds (worth around $21 billion) were suspended, and some were ordered to liquidate, after they struggled to repay their clients.

The funds focused on assets that are rarely traded on the market, and a recent change in the regulations of such assets decreased their prices.

Africa

The latest outbreak of Ebola virus in DR Congo grew to 7,258 confirmed cases and 3,510 deaths (a mortality rate of 48%).

It spread to a 7th province of the country and is on track to exceed the 28,610 cases of the 2014–16 West African epidemic.

Asia

Indonesia replaced its finance minister for the 2nd time since October 2024, after the country’s credit outlook fell from “stable” to “negative” according to 2 of the 3 main rating agencies.

The previous finance minister supported the president’s aggressive economic growth promises by injecting extra money into commercial banks.

Europe

In Sweden, the centre-left opposition bloc narrowly defeated the ruling right-wing bloc (176 to 173 seats), and the prime minister resigned.

The ruling bloc was supported by the anti-immigration SD party, whose members were promised cabinet jobs in the event of a victory.

Middle East

Israel tripled the size of its E1 settlement plan east of Jerusalem with tenders for building 3,400 homes.

In Yemen, over 100,000 people were displaced as the Houthi militants advanced by land along the west coast of the country to capture land next to Bab el-Mandeb.

South America

Venezuela handed 100-year rights over 20% of its known oil reserves to a private firm in which the US government takes a 35% stake.

The 17 oilfields represent 65 billion barrels of mostly extra-heavy and sour crude oil, which is a larger volume than the US’s total known reserves.

Rest of the World

Canada applied to join a UK-led “rapid-response” military force and agreed to merge its proposed defence bank with the UK’s.

The same week, Canada was invited to join the European Union as its first “associate member”, while US-Canada and US-EU tensions grew.

Technology

Leading US AI labs disclosed a series of incidents where groups of AI agents hacked their learning environments and external organisations, amid debates on AI regulation.

Donald Trump criticised the calls for AI regulation and the opposition to building data centres.

Business

Government bond yields (the rate investors earn per year on state debt) reached multi-decade highs in the US, the UK, the EU and Japan.

The Iran War, rising inflation and spending, as well as competition from AI-driven corporate bond issuance are among the causes.

Climate

The El Niño effect over the tropical Pacific Ocean further intensified, predicted to be the strongest on record and to last until February 2027.

The El Niño increases global temperatures for about a year and changes where the rain falls, especially in the Americas and Pacific Asia.

Oil

The Saudi pipeline that allowed some oil to bypass Hormuz has stayed shut since a Houthi strike on 10 September.

The pipeline carried around 4% of the world’s crude oil, the prices for which jumped above $100 per barrel again as the war in Iran continues.

Pf Pro subscribers can view all previously logged events and the archive of Pf News reports.